Was it the icy wind of January or the dizziness of power? Gabriel Attal’s hands were trembling on Tuesday afternoon as he read his notes during the transfer of power with Elisabeth Borne. At only 34 years old, the good macronie student turned into a main teacher by taking the reins of Matignon.
And many files are already waiting for him on his new desk: reshuffling the government amid a war of egos, finding a majority in the National Assembly, preparing for the European elections… We return to the three equations that the leader of the presidential majority must resolve in the coming weeks.
- The big names – the rebellious + X new things + parity = a government
This is the first delicate mission of the new majority leader: finding the names who will make up his future government. Gabriel Attal had lunch again this Wednesday noon with Emmanuel Macron to find the perfect equation to breathe new life into this second five-year term. A perilous exercise because the Prime Minister must take into account – against a backdrop of parity – the balance of forces of the majority (MoDem, Horizons, Renaissance), put out the rebels of the immigration bill… all while sparing the egos of the heavyweights of Macronie.
François Bayrou, Edouard Philippe, Gérald Darmanin and Bruno Le Maire were not really enthusiastic about seeing the ambitious young man arrive at Matignon. “Attal is perfectly legitimate. It’s the president’s choice, it would be incomprehensible to sulk…” remarked a Renaissance MP in the face of the sighs of the grumblers. “Executives are simply reluctant to expand their perimeter or place relatives. But everything will quickly get back to normal,” puts an elected official close to the president into perspective.
- 170 Renaissance + 51 MoDem + 29 Horizons + x or y = absolute majority
For the National Assembly too, Gabriel Attal will have to take out the calculator. The new boss of the majority knows perfectly well that a relative majority leads to many problems. If he wants to avoid beating Elisabeth Borne’s record of 49.3 (23 in 20 months), he must find allies on the left or the right. At least fifty votes somewhere in the Bourbon palace to pass future bills, and avoid drama in the Hemicycle. “Elisabeth Borne didn’t really print, he is more political and pragmatic, there is the surprise coefficient. He is capable of looking to the right and to the left,” wants to believe François Patriat, boss of the Renaissance senators.
“He speaks to everyone, it was he who launched the Bercy dialogues or succeeded in getting a budgetary text voted on [rectificatif en 2022, mais aussi en 2023] without 49.3, it is not trivial,” adds Renaissance MP Mathieu Lefèvre. It remains to be seen the attitude of the right towards him. “The idea is not to scream before it hurts. We are waiting to see his roadmap,” says Les Républicains MP Eric Pauget.
- 31% (RN) – 21% (Renaissance) = 10% difference, i.e. a potential reduction
These figures are the results of the latest polls for the European elections next June. As majority leader, Gabriel Attal will have the difficult task of leading the campaign with the head of the list (yet to be found) of the presidential camp. Beaten by a hair during the last European election in 2019, the Macronist list is now up to 10 points behind that led by Jordan Bardella for the National Rally. A chasm that the new Prime Minister must fill.
“The current polls mean nothing. If the government scores points in the months to come, by rearming itself on schools, security… the majority will come out of it,” François Patriat wants to believe. Another elected official is less optimistic and already fears the worst. “In case of failure, the cards will be rescanned after the vote.”