Status: 06.07.2022 06:00 a.m
If there were state elections in Lower Saxony on Sunday, the SPD would still be the leading force in the state despite heavy losses – but its lead over the CDU is dwindling. The Greens are making significant gains.
This was the result of a representative survey by Infratest dimap on behalf of NDR. According to her, the SPD is currently still at 30 percent. That is 6 percentage points less than the previous Lower Saxony trend in November. With this status, the Lower Saxony SPD has fallen back to its record low of 2008. According to the current NDR survey, the CDU gained four percentage points and now has 27 percent. But that would still be their worst election result since 1955. Meanwhile, the Greens have made significant gains: They are now at 22 percent. This is a good result for a non-city state, especially since the Green Party’s top candidate, Julia Willie Hamburg, is still relatively unknown. According to the Lower Saxony trend, the FDP and AfD are losing percentage points, the left would still not be represented in the state parliament.
Prime Minister Weil in front in direct election
If voters in Lower Saxony could elect the prime minister directly, they would choose incumbent Stephan Weil (SPD). Like his party, he is also losing a lot of support personally, but remains the most popular politician in the country at 52 percent. Economics Minister Bernd Althusmann – as CDU state leader also top candidate and Weil’s direct competitor – would choose only 22 percent as their prime minister.
How satisfied are you with the work of the state government?
The last Lower Saxony trend had already shown that satisfaction with the state government had decreased. Now approval for the work of the red-black coalition has fallen even further. Nevertheless, the majority of respondents are “very satisfied” or “satisfied”.
Which party should lead the state government?
At the end of the election evening on Sunday, October 9th, one of the candidates will claim a government contract from the Lower Saxony vote. Those surveyed see the SPD clearly ahead. They trust the state party led by Stephan Weil to be more capable of leading the government than the CDU, which has been in government as a coalition partner since October 2017.
44 percent rate Althusmann’s work positively
Not only the SPD is losing approval, also that of SPD Prime Minister Weil is crumbling. While he still convinced almost two-thirds of those eligible to vote in the last survey, 56 percent are currently still satisfied with his work – a minus of 9 percentage points. The work of the Economics Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Bernd Althusmann assessed 44 percent of those entitled to vote positively – unchanged. 10 percent (plus 1 percentage point) are satisfied with the work of the Greens parliamentary group leader and top candidate Julia Willie Hamburg. However, it is unknown to more than three quarters of those entitled to vote.
Respondents prefer red-green
According to the NDR survey, a new edition of red-green would be mathematically possible, the declared desired alliance of the incumbent Prime Minister Weil. This coalition broke up in 2017 when Green MP Elke Twesten defected to the CDU. A coalition of the CDU and the Greens would also have a majority. Mathematically, the existing grand coalition of SPD and CDU could also be continued. Meanwhile, a future red-green alliance is most popular with voters, with 45 percent describing it as “very good” or “good”. A future grand coalition of SPD and CDU, as governed since 2017, is only rated positively by 33 percent.
Energy policy almost as important as education and schools
When asked about the most important challenges in Lower Saxony, global political developments are revealed: “Energy policy/energy transition” and “inflation/rising prices” are named as important by those entitled to vote. These are issues that did not play a major role in the last state election. The areas of education and school remain in first place of the important topics – even if they are perceived to be far less important than in the past. So, canceled lessons, a shortage of teachers, problems with distance learning, that still affects the people of Lower Saxony very much, despite the world situation.
Another 48 percent are satisfied with the economic situation
The Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and the associated price increases and consequences for the economic outlook are also reflected in the Lower Saxony trend. Voters are currently assessing the economic situation in Lower Saxony more negatively than in the previous survey in November. 48 percent are still satisfied with the economic situation in the federal state (down 14 percentage points compared to the November survey), 47 percent rate the situation as “less good” or “bad” (up 13 percentage points).
Lower Saxony are more pessimistic
51 percent of respondents in Lower Saxony believe that their economic situation will deteriorate in a year. This means that the people of Lower Saxony are more pessimistic than they have been for around 15 years.
Infratest dimap surveyed a total of 1,154 voters in Lower Saxony by telephone or online from June 29 to July 4. The range of fluctuation is between 2 percentage points (with a share value of 10 percent) and three percentage points (with a share value of 50 percent).
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