Status: 04/21/2022 06:00 a.m
Two and a half weeks before the state elections on May 8th in Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU is ahead. The SPD remains stable, the Greens lose. This was the result of a representative survey by infratest dimap on behalf of the NDR.
If the people in the northernmost state could decide on the state parliament next Sunday, 38 percent of those surveyed would vote for the Christian Democrats. The SPD would get 20 percent. Compared to the previous NDR survey of March 31, the CDU would gain 2 percentage points, while the Social Democrats remain unchanged (+/-0). The Greens are 16 percent – that would be 2 percentage points less than in the March survey.
The FDP would gain slightly with 9 percent of the votes (+1). The AfD would remain unchanged at 6 percent. 4 percent (+/-0) of those questioned spoke in favor of the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), which is exempt from the five percent clause. All other parties together would score 7 percent (-1). In the 2017 state elections, the CDU got 32.0 percent, the SPD 27.3 percent and the Greens 12.9 percent. At that time, the Liberals got 11.5 percent, the AfD 5.9 percent and the SSW 3.3 percent of the vote.
Various coalitions possible
The previous Jamaica coalition would be history. Because it would already be enough for a two-party alliance of the CDU and the Greens. But a coalition of CDU and FDP would also have a narrow majority. Mathematically possible, but politically unlikely would also be a grand coalition of CDU and SPD. For a traffic light from the SPD, Greens and FDP, however, it would not be enough at the moment.
You want to calculate? Consider other constellations? Gladly: Use the coalition calculator. You can reach him in the upper left corner of the Sunday question graphic.
Direct election: Günther still ahead in the voters’ favour
In a direct comparison, according to the survey, Prime Minister Daniel Günther (CDU) is still well ahead of challenger Thomas Losse-Müller. If the people of Schleswig-Holstein could elect their head of government directly, the incumbent would get 62 percent (+/-0). Although the SPD’s top candidate was able to increase its value by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month, it still lags behind Günther at 8 percent. The Prime Minister candidate of the Greens, Monika Heinold, comes to 10 percent – 1 percentage point less than in the March 31 poll.
Support from their own ranks – and the SPD supporters
However, one in five respondents (20 percent) does not want to commit to any of the three state politicians. According to a survey, Daniel Günther’s support for a direct election is 94 percent in his own party. Of the Greens supporters, just as many support Daniel Günther as Monika Heinold (40:40 percent). The SPD supporters (43:35 percent) continue to favor the CDU incumbent over their own top candidate Thomas Losse-Müller (43:35 percent). 76 percent of FDP supporters would choose the incumbent in a direct election.
Satisfaction with the current state government remains positive
According to the survey, shortly before the election, almost eight out of ten eligible voters (75 percent; +/-0 points compared to March 31) are satisfied with the work of the state government. The Jamaican coalition has won over the supporters of the three coalition parties, CDU (92 percent), Greens (83 percent) and FDP (80 percent), as well as a majority of SPD supporters (73 percent) with their government work. As usual, clear criticism in Schleswig-Holstein is limited to AfD voters (12:88 percent).
How the supporters of the other parties see this can be viewed in the graphic. The same applies to the analysis by age group, gender, level of education and size of place of residence. The menu can be opened and closed by clicking on “Selection”. (This analysis is also possible in other graphics)
ZDissatisfaction with politicians: Heinold follows Günther
The work of Prime Minister Daniel Günther was also rated extremely positively (76 percent) in the survey. 29 percent of Schleswig-Holsteiners are very satisfied, 47 percent are satisfied. This is what 1 or 14 percent of those surveyed say about SPD top candidate Thomas Losse-Müller. Next to Günther, Monika Heinold (40 percent) has the highest level of satisfaction. 7 percent of Schleswig-Holsteiners are very satisfied and 47 percent are satisfied with the top candidate of the Greens.
The economic situation is assessed positively
The people of Schleswig-Holstein currently describe their own economic situation as mostly positive: 4 percent describe their personal situation as very good, another two-thirds (65 percent) consider it good.
How will the economic situation in Schleswig-Holstein be in a year?
However, the economic expectations of the citizens are much less positive. As in the spring of last year, 44 percent do not expect any fundamental changes in the economic situation in the state over the next twelve months. A similar number (44 percent) now expect the economic situation to deteriorate, after just 15 percent compared to May 2021.
Energy supply: Majority in favor of extending nuclear power plant runtimes
Renewable energies, gas reserves, LNG or a delayed coal or nuclear phase-out? The list of ideas for making Germany less dependent on Russian gas is long – and controversial. In Schleswig-Holstein, around nine out of ten (88 percent) think the expansion of renewable energies is the right thing to do. The development of other energy sources is assessed more cautiously: Six out of ten support increased oil and gas imports from countries such as Qatar or Saudi Arabia (59:29 percent) as a reaction to the Ukraine war, five out of ten support an extension of the terms of German Nuclear power plants (48:44 percent).
For this representative survey, Infratest dimap surveyed a total of 1,172 voters in Schleswig-Holstein from April 13 to 19, 2022 by telephone or online. The fluctuation range is between two percentage points (for a share value of 10 percent) and three percentage points (for a share value of 50 percent).
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