The Ukrainian presidency ruled on Sunday that the chances of finding a “diplomatic solution” to the crisis with Russia were “considerably greater” than that of a military “escalation”. “The chances of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation are considerably greater than the threat of further escalation,” Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the head of Ukraine’s presidential administration, said after warnings from US intelligence that Moscow has stepped up his preparations for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
“A significant concentration of Russian troops near our borders (…) has been maintained since last spring”, but to “carry out massive psychological pressure”, Russia is carrying out “massive rotations”, maneuvers and movements of armaments, continued the official in written comments given to AFP by the press service of the presidency.
The offensive would lead to the death of many civilians and soldiers
However, Ukraine and its Western allies must “be ready for all scenarios and we are performing this task 100%”, Mykhaïlo Podoliak further argued. American Intelligence estimates for its part that Russia already has 70% of the device necessary for a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and could have sufficient capacities, ie 150,000 men, to launch an offensive in two weeks.
According to US officials, US Intelligence had not yet established whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had made the decision to go on the offensive or not, but wanted to give himself all possible options, from invasion partial from the separatist enclave of Donbass to total invasion.
If Vladimir Putin chose the more radical option, he could encircle Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and topple President Volodymyr Zelensky in 48 hours, these officials say. They warned that the conflict would have a considerable human cost with the risk of causing the death of 25,000 to 50,000 civilians, 5,000 to 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 3,000 to 10,000 Russian soldiers. It could also cause an influx of 1 to 5 million refugees, mainly to Poland.