From our correspondent in the United States,
In the vice-presidency, the cardinal rule is the same as in medicine: “First, do no harm”. And while Kamala Harris has generally respected her, avoiding any major missteps tarnishing Joe Biden’s presidency for now, the former California senator has struggled to exist in a complicated first year. By meeting Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday, the Vice President of the United States wants to do a double blow: continue transatlantic reconciliation after the submarine soap opera and solidify her stature with a view to a possible candidacy in 2024 or 2028.
When Joe Biden chose her as his running mate, after the death of George Floyd and a summer of mobilization against racism, Kamala Harris was obvious. And it paid off: the African-American community mobilized more during the presidential campaign. This proved to be crucial in Atlanta, Milwaukee and Detroit to allow Joe Biden to overtake Donald Trump by a few tens of thousands of votes. But the pandemic has passed that way, and Americans now seem more concerned with the price of gasoline and the inflation of basic foodstuffs than with social and racial justice.
Voters sent an unequivocal warning message to Democrats last week, electing a Republican governor of Virginia. This state had been won by Joe Biden with ten points difference in 2020. Kamala Harris, who mobilized in this election, warned before the vote: “The result in Virginia will largely determine what will happen in 2022 and in 2024. “
Falling popularity
Kamala Harris, who still had 53% favorable opinions last February, has dropped 13 points in the polls in eight months, to 40% today, according to the average of RealClearPolitics. It’s 2.5 points lower than Joe Biden, and worse than Mike Pence, Al Gore or Dick Cheney at the same stage of their vice-presidency.
If the popularity of Joe Biden began to collapse at the end of July, after the complicated withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, that of Kamala Harris faltered in June. At the time when Joe Biden gave her a poisoned gift by placing her in charge of the thorny issue of illegal immigration from Central America. Faced with criticism from Republicans who seem to score points, the vice-president went to Guatemala. The one who had to play the balancing act, however, advocated a message of firmness, launching a “Do not come” to the migrants which earned her criticism from the elected progressive Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
2024 or 2028 target
Still, his relationship with Joe Biden, polar after their television clash of the primary, has warmed. And Joel Goldstein, professor of constitutional law at Saint-Louis University, author of several books on the vice-presidency, assures that Kamala Harris has the privileged status of “last person consulted” by Joe Biden, in particular “for his ambitious program. spending Build Back Better, the pandemic and the climate ”. The first black woman and first person of Indian origin to take up the vice-presidency, she “has an important voice in an inclusive administration and carries that of groups that have often been absent from decision-making power”, continues the academic.
Kamala Harris dreams of always going higher. For now, the ambitious must wait patiently for Joe Biden to decide to leave for a second term, or not. Last spring, the US president, who will approach 82 in November 2024, assured him that he intended to stay in the White House for four more years. Otherwise, only one thing is certain: Kamala Harris would have competition in the primary, especially if her popularity rating remains at that level and Democrats experience a rout during the Midterms. And if successful, a vice president seldom becomes the commander-in-chief of the United States at the ballot box. Out of 46 presidencies, this has only happened four times, including two in modern times with George Bush Sr. and… Joe Biden.