Storm warning at the top of the State: the surge in public finances is weighing down relations between Emmanuel Macron and Bruno Le Maire. Bercy now forecasts a deficit of 5.1% of GDP for the year 2024, forcing the government to find an additional 10 billion euros in savings (20 in total) to hope to fall below the 3% mark at the end of the year. five year term.
A slippage which weakens the status of the indestructible Minister of Economy and Finance. Which does not fail to cultivate its ambitions for 2027, to the great dismay of the Elysée.
“Macron rarely reframes his ministers”
Without asking anything from anyone, Bercy raised the idea last weekend of putting in place a draft amending finance law (PLFR), in order to restore the economic trajectory. This approach, dangerous for the executive because it opens the way to a motion of censure, was not to Emmanuel Macron’s taste. The President of the Republic came to say this in person at a meeting of the majority on Monday. “If we start to lose confidence, it’s over. There is nothing harder to win, he said. It doesn’t have to be a sausage fair. We need the calm of the old troops.”
A way of tempering the alarmist remarks of his minister on the state of public finances in recent months. “Macron rarely reorganizes his ministers. Maybe he felt it was dangerous for the Europeans. You don’t win a campaign by scaring the French,” whispers a majority executive.
The Elysée was also irritated by the media offensive accompanying the release of yet another – quasi-programmatic – book by Bruno Le Maire, The French Way (Ed. Flammarion), a month ago. The work, which notably advocates a reform of the French social model, was written and published… in the secrecy of the executive. “He is right about economic recovery and reforms. He should talk about it to the man who has been Minister of the Economy for seven years,” mocked Emmanuel Macron, according to comments reported by the Chained duck. Spikes cleverly distilled in the press to weaken the tenant of Bercy.
Blowing the “fuse” Le Maire?
The opposition, from the left to the RN, rushed into the breach, denouncing “the terrible toll” of the person concerned and calling for his resignation. Enough to weaken his position in government? “Blowing the Le Maire fuse is a possibility,” confides a majority executive, who is surprised by the repeated criticisms of Emmanuel Macron.
“The president doesn’t like being put in danger. But he would like to put the weight of the debt on Le Maire because he writes books and he writes them well? », smiles a Renaissance elected official close to the two men. “The ‘whatever it costs’, the energy shield, the doubling of the Justice budget, it is not the choice of the minister, who has always been loyal,” he says. . “We sometimes have the impression that Bruno Le Maire is following his personal agenda. But we should not make him a scapegoat, he is not responsible for the debt,” adds a MoDem deputy.
A visit that smells of gunpowder
After several days of tension, it would now be time for calm. “There was a disagreement, an explanation took place. My position was not accepted, of which action was taken. We must now come together,” said Bruno Le Maire to the majority executives, gathered for the traditional breakfast at Matignon on Wednesday, one of the participants reported.
The minister accompanied the head of state this Thursday during a factory visit to Bergerac (Dordogne). The latter recalled that he excluded any new tax increase, this “French disease”, one of the mantras of the tenant of Bercy. Proof of the cordial understanding between the president and his minister? Distrust because at the end of April, several rating agencies could lower France’s rating a few weeks before the perilous European elections. Enough to raise tensions in the presidential camp. This Thursday’s trip – a shell powder factory – would then take on a completely different symbolism.