This Tuesday, after questions to the government in the National Assembly, a debate will take place on the situation in Ukraine. Even if in the institutions of the Fifth Republic foreign affairs are a reserved domain of the President of the Republic, it happens that Parliament is consulted, this will be the case this afternoon.
What is it about ?
Very officially, this Tuesday afternoon there will be a “Government declaration relating to the debate on the Franco-Ukrainian security agreement and the situation in Ukraine, followed by a debate and a vote, in accordance with article 50-1 of the Constitution. This provision introduced in the 2008 constitutional reform allows the executive to consult the Assembly and/or the Senate on very diverse subjects during a single debate. This was for example the case during Covid with the deconfinement strategy or the vaccination strategy.
The debate can take place without a vote, as on October 23 regarding the situation in Israel and Palestine following the Hamas attacks of October 7. With a vote, the government takes a small risk, but it is only consultative in any case. The same declaration with the same vote will take place in the Senate, but late Wednesday afternoon.
How it will go ?
The government will, literally, make a declaration before the National Assembly, through the voice of the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal. It is moreover on this declaration that the deputies will have to decide. Then, each group will send a representative to the podium to respond to the government statement. In this case, groups should take the opportunity to announce the vote of their members.
Their speaking time will be more or less proportional to their representation in the hemicycle. Each group may possibly divide its speaking time into several speakers. At the end of the answers, the Prime Minister will still be able to return to the podium to respond to the groups, and the vote will take place.
What will the government’s statement include?
In detail, we don’t know yet. But a clarification of France’s position after several declarations by the President of the Republic is expected by the oppositions. What we do know, however, is that Gabriel Attal should explain a little more precisely, but not completely, what is included in the security agreement between Paris and Kiev signed by Emmanuel Macron and Volodymyr Zelensky during his last visit to Paris, in February. The declaration should also concern Ukraine’s possible future membership in NATO and the European Union.
Who will vote for what?
This is the point that should most divide the national assembly. The three groups that support the government (Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons) will vote for. The RN, LFI and the communist group (GDR) should vote against. Some other groups are still waiting to hear the declaration before commenting. Anything other than a favorable vote will be a big surprise.