From our correspondent in the United States
It’s a real marathon. Every four years, Americans are called to the polls to elect their president on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. In 2024, that will fall on November 5, with incumbent Joe Biden, 80, seeking a second term. Opposite, Donald Trump, 78, is the big favorite in the Republican primary, which starts on January 15. The former president, however, remains under threat from American justice, with four trials which risk disrupting his campaign.
Here is the calendar so you don’t miss anything with the Democratic meetings (in blue), the Republicans (in red), the trials of Donald Trump (in purple).
January 15: Iowa Caucus
Since 1972, this rural state with a 90% white population has kicked off the Republican and Democratic primaries with its famous caucus. This is a vote in the form of a neighborhood meeting: representatives of the candidates “pitch” their program, and activists choose their champion. Below a certain threshold, a candidate is eliminated, and voters must go with their second choice, and so on. This vote reporting mechanism makes forecasting and counting complex. Faced with Donald Trump who is in the lead on the Republican side, Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley will need to achieve a good score to maintain the suspense.
February 3: South Carolina primary
Without a serious opponent among the Democrats – Robert F. Kennedy Jr finally decided to run for president as a candidate without a label – Joe Biden must technically go through a predetermined primary. After the fiasco of the 2020 Iowa caucus, which took three days to deliver its official results, the party decided to open the ball with South Carolina, which has 26% African-Americans. New Hampshire could defy the official calendar and vote as early as January, but Joe Biden has indicated that he will boycott this election.
March 4 (?): Federal trial of Donald Trump over the 2020 election
The date could still change. Donald Trump faces four charges related to the 2020 election, including “conspiracy to commit fraud against the United States” and “conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding” of Congress. Trump, who has pleaded not guilty, faces a theoretical maximum of 55 years in prison. However, a conviction would not prevent him from being a candidate. And in the event of victory in November 2024, he could, in theory, self-pardon.
March 5: “Super Tuesday” (for both parties)
This “Super Tuesday” is the most important day of the primaries. About fifteen states and territories are voting, including the two biggest prizes: California and Texas. A third of the total delegates needed to win the nomination are at stake. If Donald Trump crushes the competition, he could almost seal the deal for the Republican nomination
March 25 (?): Trial of Donald Trump in New York in the Stormy Daniels affair
This trial will certainly be postponed to give priority to federal prosecutions. Charged with financial fraud for having bought the silence of ex-pornstar Stormy Daniels during the 2016 presidential election, and passing the reimbursements to his ex-lawyer Michael Cohen as legal fees, Donald Trump assures that it was ‘a personal matter and not a campaign. Although a prison sentence is not excluded, this type of charge is more often punished by a fine.
May 20 (?): Federal trial of Donald Trump on classified documents
The date remains uncertain with Judge Cannon, appointed by Donald Trump, who has the power to drag out the case. Indicted on 37 counts including “unlawful retention of information relating to national security”, “obstruction of justice” and “false testimony”, the former president pleaded not guilty in a federal court in Miami. Again, a presidential victory would likely allow him, as chief executive, to suspend a federal conviction.
June 4, 2024: End of the Republican primary
2,467 delegates are at stake, so you must obtain half of them (1,234) to automatically secure the nomination to the convention. In 2016, Donald Trump narrowly passed this bar against Ted Cruz. Barring a cataclysm, his lead should be much more comfortable this year.
June 8: End of the Democratic primary
With the only opponents being Minnesota elected official Dean Phillips and self-love guru Marianne Williamson, Joe Biden doesn’t really have to worry, except for a health problem.
July 15-18: Republican Convention in Milwaukee
Wisconsin was chosen by the Republicans because it is one of the tightest states in recent years: Joe Biden won by 20,000 votes in 2020 and Donald Trump by 23,000 votes in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.
August 19-22: Democratic Convention in Chicago
The Democrats will set up their districts in Windy City, 130 km from Milwaukee. The working-class vote in Michigan and the Great Lakes region will be one of the main issues in a possible rematch between Trump and Biden. The latter will be able to count on the support of Governor Gretchen Whitmer, re-elected to a chair in 2020, in particular by mobilizing the Democratic electorate to defend the right to abortion.
Summer-fall (?): Trial of Donald Trump in Georgia on the election
For Donald Trump, this is the most dangerous trial. If convicted, he would not be able to escape a prison sentence imposed by the courts of an American state, and a presidential victory would plunge the United States into an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Three former Trump campaign lawyers have already pleaded guilty, and prosecutor Fani Willis could rely on their testimony against them. But the timetable could drag on, with a sprawling indictment that draws on laws against organized crime.
November 5: American presidential election
Inflation, migration crisis at the southern border, abortion… There is no shortage of hot topics. Even with the end of the health emergency, early and mail-in voting will be crucial, and Republicans are trying to catch up logistically behind 2020.
December 17: Electors register their vote
The vote is indirect: Americans vote in each state for 538 electors of the electoral college, who then elect the president, normally respecting the verdict of the ballot boxes.
January 6, 2025: Confirmation of results at Congress
Congress counts the electoral college votes and confirms the results. A meeting which will inevitably be under high tension, after the assault on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
January 20, 2025: Inauguration of the president
The 47th President of the United States takes the oath of office at the Capitol and moves into the White House.