Were the Marshall Islands victims of a “rogue wave”?

The video went around the world on networks: this weekend, immense waves caused flooding on an American military base, located in the South Pacific on the Marshall Islands. “The accommodations, the automobile complex, the theater and the chapel on the island were damaged,” said the United States army in a press release relayed by CNN. The American channel also interviewed meteorologist Robert Shackelford, who spoke of a “rogue wave”, a sudden and very rare phenomenon, once considered a myth, but now proven by several studies. He added that this phenomenon was aggravated by rising water levels due to climate change.

In the middle of Kwajalein Atoll, on the island of Roi-Namur, the images are impressive. According to the American army, the return to normal after reconstruction operations could take several months, the floods having affected places of residence, catering and entertainment, as well as transport.

A “monster wave” causing the damage?

This violent storm hit a military site which houses ultra-sophisticated equipment. The Marshall Islands military site – a chain of volcanic islands and coral atolls located halfway between Hawaii and Australia – is used notably for ballistic missile testing and space operations. According to the images, posted on social networks, we can see downpours carrying people in their path, breaking windows and tearing out windows. About 80 of the base’s 120 personnel had to be evacuated, the U.S. military said. A team of 60 people remained on site to assess the damage and restore basic services.

Meteorologist Robert Shackelford, interviewed on CNN, alluded to the “rogue wave” phenomenon, in English monster wave Or rogue wave, which manifests itself as a wave that is at least twice the size of those surrounding it. They form spontaneously and unpredictably. They would be the result of a conjunction between currents, wind and swell. They are very difficult to record because they mainly occur in the open sea and the first to be observed was a wave approximately 26 meters high, which hit the Draupner oil platform in 1995, off the coast of Norway.

Many areas still flooded

According to a study relayed by the journal Scientific Reports in February 2022, “the most extreme rogue wave on record” was observed in November 2020 off the coast of Ucluelet, near Vancouver, British Columbia. It was 17.6 meters high, three times the height of the surrounding waves, but fortunately caused no damage or casualties.

According to Johannes Gemmrich, a physicist at the University of Victoria who works on these phenomena, “only a few rogue waves in the open ocean have been directly observed, and never anything of this magnitude.” Co-author of another study on the subject, the scientist also noted, thanks to the use of artificial intelligence, that “out of a billion waves, around 100,000 could be defined as rogue waves”, relayed the magazine Geo in November. Or the equivalent of a “rogue wave every day at a random location in the ocean,” Johannes Gemmrich further specified in a press release.

Aerial photos showed the extent of the damage suffered by infrastructure after the waves broke on the island of Roi-Namur, with several areas remaining flooded. “Clearing the Roi-Namur airstrip and ensuring its safety is our top priority,” garrison commander Colonel Drew Morgan said in a statement. “Once the runway is open, we will be able to move people and equipment around to begin reconstruction,” he added.


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