War against Ukraine: “Not the successes that Moscow hoped for”

Russia’s offensive is making slow progress in Ukraine, says Eastern Europe expert Sabine Fischer. However, criticism from ultranationalists is not dangerous for Putin. His actions are also about the presidential election in 2024.

tagesschau.de: Ms. Fischer, what are the current characteristics of the war?

Sabine Fischer: For the past two to three weeks, a Russian offensive has been underway through increased airstrikes, and Russian forces and Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group private army are attempting to gain terrain at various points in the Donbass. The best known of these is Bachmut.

Since then we have seen that the Russian armed forces are making very difficult progress, if one can speak of progress at all. The long-awaited offensive, feared by the Ukrainian side, is here, but it is not bringing the results that Moscow might have hoped for.

“Russia has turned into a dictatorship”

tagesschau.de: Russia certainly expected at the beginning of the war to make faster progress in Ukraine, to conquer Ukraine faster. It is now clear that these goals have not yet been achieved, and it is questionable whether they will be achieved at all. Nevertheless, Vladimir Putin has evidently not lost support among the population. How do you explain that?

fisherman: It is very difficult to measure how much support Putin has among the Russian people. On the one hand, we have polls, also from the last remaining independent polling institute, the Levada Institute in Moscow, which show that a majority of 60 percent to 70 percent of those who take part in these polls support the so-called special operation in Ukraine.

At the same time, over the past year and basically in the first few days of the invasion, we have seen the already very tough Russian autocracy morph into a dictatorship. Under these conditions, it is extremely difficult for those parts of the population who are against the war to express this dissent and this resistance at all and to measure what is happening on the social level. In this respect, I would always be careful with such assessments.

We have to assume that a majority of the Russian population will continue to support at least Putin as Russian President. And we cannot assume that Russian society will develop any noticeable and effective resistance to this war in the foreseeable future. But one should not forget that in the first few days after the start of the invasion, an anti-war movement made itself felt very quickly, which was then flattened by this Russian dictatorship.

Criticism that Putin can use

tagesschau.de: One can possibly also add to this the large number of people who left the country after the mobilization in the autumn. We hear little dissent from Russia, and when we do, it is mainly from the ultra-nationalist camp. Recently, there have been clear differences between Yevgeny Prigozhin of the Wagner Group, whom you have already mentioned, and the army leadership. How do you explain these differences that are being played out here?

fisherman: There are two formulas to explain this. There have always been ultra-nationalists in Russia, even in 2014/2015 and in the years that followed, after the actual start of this Russian war against Ukraine. Back then, in September 2014, hostilities slowed down and Russia refrained from further conquests. The Minsk agreements were negotiated, and the ultra-nationalists, for example, were up in arms because it didn’t correspond at all to their ideas of “New Russia”, of conquering all of southern Ukraine, the land bridge to Crimea and so on.

We have a similar situation today. There is ultra-nationalist criticism of the Kremlin, there is criticism of the armed forces. In my view, this criticism is not dangerous for Putin as Russian President. He can even use them to justify and cushion his own steps. This is what happened last year when partial mobilization was announced.

As far as Prigozhin, the Wagner group and relations with the Russian armed forces are concerned, we have always had tensions here. There’s a competitive relationship there. The accusations that Prigozhin has just leveled at the armed forces and the commander-in-chief of so-called special operations, namely that the armed forces were not supplying Wagner adequately, clearly indicate to me that the Russian offensive is in serious trouble. The pressure that this creates is expressed in such arguments and mutual accusations.

“A dangerous scenario for Russia”

tagesschau.de: So it could also be the case that Putin is playing off powerful different groups against each other here?

fisherman: It has always been part of his rule of law. This can be dangerous in the future. Now we still have a very stable power vertical in this dictatorial system. At its head is Putin, who continues to control the system.

But should his position ever destabilize, those very same actors, Prigozhin with his private army or Ramzan Kadyrov in Chechnya, competing security services and possibly the army too, could begin to compete for power, including by force. This is a very dangerous scenario for Russia’s future. For Ukraine, such a dangerous scenario would probably bring relief at first because it would take the pressure off her.

“Presidential election 2024 is already being prepared”

tagesschau.de: In his address to the nation, Putin plied the whole score of myths about the war against Ukraine. Does he also have an eye on the presidential election scheduled for next year?

fisherman: Almost everything that has happened domestically over the past five years has been focused on the 2024 presidential election. It is a central hub. It marks the end of Vladimir Putin’s second consecutive term in office. According to the old Russian constitution, he would no longer be constitutionally allowed to run at all. That is why he had a new constitution passed in 2020, in which this regulation was overturned.

And all the elections we’ve seen in recent years have been tailored for the 2024 presidential election. We also know from well-informed circles that the Kremlin administration has now started to prepare for the presidential election. You can no longer call this preparation for the election campaign because there are no longer any free elections in Russia. In this respect, you definitely have to see it in this context.

“Problems do not question Zelenskyj’s symbolic function”

tagesschau.de: Let’s look again at Ukraine. Where does President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stand a year after the start of the war? Before the war broke out, there was clear criticism of his administration, for example in the fight against corruption. Have these conflicts completely receded into the background with the war?

fisherman: One has to answer your question in two directions. You can’t do well in a war situation like this. But if you look at the polls, the support that Zelenskyy enjoys among the population is very high. He has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance to Russian aggression, thereby playing an extremely important role in defending Ukraine against Russian aggression.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that the problems that Ukraine had before have been resolved. There have just been major problems with a corruption scandal in the armed forces and also in the government. Selenskyj took action. He has announced that he will continue to take action against corruption, also in view of the forthcoming accession negotiations with the EU, which the Ukrainian side wants to see opened as soon as possible.

The topic will continue to accompany us. However, this does not call into question its function and its strong symbolic position with regard to the war and defense against the Russian attack.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de. The interview was slightly adapted for the written presentation.