As of: December 21, 2021 5:00 p.m.
The number of infections in Germany is falling. But because the new Omikron variant is spreading extremely quickly, stricter corona measures are overdue. A paradox that is difficult to resolve, says virologist Sandra Ciesek. Because: “Every day counts.”
Vaccinated, boosted – and now comes Omikron. Experts speak of either a “wave” or a “wall” that is rolling towards us with the new coronavirus variant. This can already be observed in neighboring countries such as Denmark or the Netherlands, where the number of people infected with the mutant doubles every two days. “I can’t think of a good reason why it should be different in Germany,” says Ciesek in the new episode of NDR Info Podcasts Coronavirus Update.
Around Christmas, as modelers have calculated, B.1.1.529 will probably also be the predominant Corona variant in Germany. But because the holidays are approaching and health authorities and laboratories do not work as they do on normal working days, Ciesek believes that we will be in a kind of “blind flight” for a long time and recognize the possible extent of the omicron spread late. “We will only see how the situation really is at the beginning of mid-January,” says the Director of Medical Virology at the University Clinic in Frankfurt / Main.
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Expert advice and RKI warn
In an urgent appeal, the new Expert Council of the Federal Government has drawn attention to a new dimension in the pandemic and the possibility of an explosive spread of Omikron, because one of the main properties of the variant, which is riddled with more than 50 mutations, is that it can also infect people who have been vaccinated and those who have recovered. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) has “maximum contact restrictions” from now on required. The fact that the seriousness of the situation is still not recognized by everyone is also related to the visible part of the current development of the infection process in Germany: The nationwide numbers sink. It is an effect of previous measures, although more stringent ones would have been necessary for a long time. And it is only the still prevailing delta portion that is declining, while the Omikron variant of it is already increasing.
The prevention paradox caught up with us
The prevention paradox caught up with us again. “One would have to react preventively in terms of medicine and health policy. But the courts say: As long as the numbers do not deteriorate, tightening cannot be justified,” says Ciesek. “How to resolve this is not clear to me.” It is all the more important that everyone takes preventive action themselves. Especially at Christmas and at the turn of the year. The virologist repeats what she pointed out a year ago: “It is important that everyone checks for themselves: which contacts are essential? And that you also see travel as a potential source of infection and reduce it. That you just do a few courses at the turn of the year switch back. “
Due to the dynamics that the infection process with Omikron is already showing in other countries, the risk of infection with the Omikron variant increases every day, according to Ciesek. And she does not currently see stable data for generally mild trends. Her advice: For better protection one should preferably wear FFP2 masks and continue to practice distance, ventilation and hygiene rules, as learned over the course of many months. And pull in an additional network with antigen tests, for example when visiting nursing homes. This also applies to people who have been vaccinated three times, even though rapid tests are always just a snapshot.
Working life: form small groups, maintain functionality
From their point of view, special attention should be paid to the world of work in the coming weeks, especially in areas in which operations must be maintained, such as hospitals, care facilities, electricity and water suppliers. “I can only advise every employer to think about how to ensure that there are small groups that meet as little as possible. So that if someone fails, the function can be ensured by another team,” says Ciesek.
Booster also supports against Omikron
Last but not least, the scientist hopes that even more people, especially the elderly, will decide to vaccinate. In many places, vaccination centers remain open over the turn of the year. Just got the Standing Vaccination Committee (Stiko) recommended to use boosters three months after the second vaccination. Ciesek sees it as a good sign that a third of the total population has already received a booster. Omikron is able to outsmart the immune system of vaccinated and convalescent people. However, several laboratory tests around the world have shown that a third dose also increases protection against Omikron again – although not to the same extent as with Delta. The Result in Ciesek’s Frankfurt laboratory: Two weeks after a Biontech booster, the immune protection against the Delta variant was almost completely intact; the protective effect against Omikron was between 58 and 78 percent.
The booster effect also decreases over time
“Our data indicate that this booster is extremely important and also extremely efficient because the protection against Delta, but also against Omikron, can be significantly increased,” says Ciesek. At the same time, she emphasizes the need to keep a long-term strategy in mind: “You have to think about it: What happens afterwards?” Her laboratory tests in cell culture have also shown that the booster effect does not last forever, that the antibody level drops again over time. The sera from hospital employees showed only 85 percent robust protection against Delta three or four months after the booster. However, neutralizing antibodies against the Omikron variant were only formed in 25 percent of the samples examined.
There is no such thing as one hundred percent security
For Ciesek it follows that urgent questions like: Do you vaccinate those who have been boosted again after six months? Or is the risk of serious illness after three doses so low that one would rather wait for a vaccine update optimized for Omikron? “Even a booster will probably not protect against infection in the long term.” It is becoming more and more likely that everyone will encounter the virus at some point.
“If you buckle up and have an airbag, that’s what you can do and good protection. But if I hit a wall with a hundred, it won’t do me any good either.”
Sandra Ciesek on navigating through the corona pandemic
For this point in time X one can simply prepare as well as possible, says the virologist and compares navigating through the pandemic with driving a car: “If you buckle up and have an airbag, that’s what you can do and one good protection. But if I hit a wall with a hundred, it won’t do me any good either. ” There is no such thing as one hundred percent security.
Novavax: Less potent than mRNA vaccine
Not even with the newly approved vaccine Novavax, the first corona vaccine that works on the principle of conventional vaccines and for which many vaccine skeptics have allegedly been waiting. With the protein preparation, the body does not have to recreate the spike protein of the coronavirus itself, as it does with mRNA vaccines. It is made artificially and injected in the form of tiny particles. The body recognizes the proteins as foreign and, in response, boosts the immune system. the Efficacy data of the registration study looked good, but the data were collected without the delta and of course without the omicron variant. “From an immunological point of view, it must also be said that the vaccine can only stimulate a few parts of the immune system. It is less potent than an mRNA vaccine,” says Ciesek. Since the vaccine is primarily geared towards the antibody response in the body and less towards the cellular immune response, which is crucial in protecting against severe disease, it remains to be seen how effective Novavax will be after a certain period of time.
Note: The next regular episode of the Coronavirus update will be released on January 4th, 2022.
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