analysis
Former US President Trump has won the first Republican primary in the state of Iowa. The victory provides an outlook for the further course of the US election. And Trump’s competitors can also learn from this.
The absolute majority of votes, more than twice as many as the runner-up: Any questions? There is a palpable appetite in “red America,” among Republican voters, for a comeback by former President Donald Trump.
Iowa has only confirmed what all the polls had already indicated: Trump towers over all of his challengers. The impeachment proceedings, his role in the storming of the Capitol, his oft-disproven fairy tale about the stolen election, the upcoming trials – no amount of monstrosity has apparently harmed him in his own camp.
Trump’s self-stylization as a victim of unfair machinations and evil intrigues by opponents who cannot beat him politically is effective. His rivals within the party have so far failed to pose a threat to him as a fresher, more serious and less chaotic alternative. It should only be a matter of time that Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis leave the field for him.
Former US President Trump has won the first Republican primary in the state of Iowa. The victory provides an outlook for the further course of the US election. And Trump’s competitors can also learn from this.
Trump’s trump card: Biden’s weakness
Trump’s strength is Joe Biden’s weakness. The famous question Americans ask themselves before presidential elections – “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” – many people currently answer: “No!” The country is groaning under the exploding cost of living, worries about billions in spending that will drive inflation, and laments America’s geopolitical impotence.
Biden’s approval rating is in the basement. He seems old, worn out, frail. Even among Democrats, a large majority consider him too old for a second term. But the younger generation doesn’t dare to take cover. It is questionable whether Biden will be able to mobilize the Democrats as effectively as in 2020 in this mood. Conservative America longs to go back to the Trump years, whose chaos and unrest have largely been forgotten.
Anyone who challenges Trump must attack head-on
Ron DeSantis probably owes his respectable success as a runner-up in Iowa to a late change of course. It was only on the final stretch of the election campaign that he dared to take a tougher stance against his former political foster father. For months, Trump had insulted him as “Ron DeSanctimonious,” to hooting laughter from his fans. And claims that without his help, DeSantis would never have become governor.
The insulted man remained silent, pretending to be a man of honor of the old school who did not want to sink to Trump’s level. But gentleman and provocateur rarely go together in election campaigns. And especially not if you are actually politically close to your opponent. Then you have to target the character of the opponent. DeSantis understood this far too late. After all, the change of heart gave him an unexpected second place.
Haley and DeSantis could still be in the race
What could slow Trump down now are his legal problems. Even if Trump’s supporters consider all upcoming proceedings to be purely politically motivated, their outcome is uncertain. Trump may be convicted in the election year. Perhaps removing his name from the ballot in Colorado and Maine was legal.
A lot can still happen in just over ten months. In the end, only the nomination party conference in the summer will put the Republican presidential candidate on the shield. If Trump is unable to attend, two alternatives are available.
The weather also plays a role
This year’s Iowa caucus broke two records. And both are connected. For one thing, it’s never been so freezing cold on a caucus day. On the other hand, voter turnout has never been so low. Icy, impassable roads, arctic temperatures and dramatic snowdrifts had already brought the election campaign to a standstill.
On caucus day, many people preferred to stay cozy at home rather than head out into the bitter cold. And so a mythical democratic tradition can only live on if the weather cooperates. In any case, no one in Iowa wanted to discuss global warming these days.