Ukrainian appeal to Belarusians: do not participate in the “dirty war”.

Thousands of Russian soldiers are now stationed in Belarus. Ukraine fears they could attack – this time together with Belarusian troops. But experts think that’s unlikely.

The Ukrainian army has called on Belarusian citizens not to engage in a “dirty war” against Ukraine. “We call on all citizens of Belarus to disobey the orders of their leadership to go to war against Ukraine,” the Ukrainian military leadership said in a direct appeal.

“Empires fall apart, people remain, normal people who can be friends or enemies.” Everyone decides this for themselves.

According to Belarusian sources, 9,000 Russian soldiers are now stationed in the country that borders Ukraine.

Ukraine sees “growing” danger

When the Russians invaded Ukraine in February, Russian troops invaded northern Ukraine from Belarus. Their capital Kyiv is not far from the border.

Ukrainian officials recently spoke of a “growing” risk of an invasion by Russian and possibly Belarusian soldiers. Their goal, the fears go, could be less Kyiv this time and more north-western Ukraine, in order to cut off their supply routes from Poland and other western neighboring countries.

Analysts are skeptical

However, experts consider such an operation to be unlikely in the coming months. The US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimates that Russian troops are unable to do this. The closest railway line to the Ukraine-Belarus one is 30 kilometers inland, and the Pripyat swamps along the border make maneuvering particularly difficult. The swamps are the largest wetland in Europe and would be difficult terrain for heavy equipment such as tanks.

In addition, Ukraine has sufficient rail connections with Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. According to the ISW, a Russian invasion from Belarus could only affect Ukraine’s logistics more severely if the troops pushed deeper into the country than during the first offensive in February. At that time, the Russian army was still significantly stronger.

The British Ministry of Defense said it was assuming that Putin was trying to distract himself. It is likely an attempt to “get Ukraine to withdraw troops to protect its northern border” – troops needed in the counter-offensive in the south and east.

Expert: Lukashenko does not want to be among the losers

The Belarusian political scientist Artyom Schraibman, who lives in exile, wrote on Telegram that there is no social basis in Belarus on which the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko could rely in a war effort. There is a broad consensus in society against the deployment of Belarusian soldiers.

Schraibman sees the “risk of destabilizing the Belarusian regime” if Lukashenko accepts any kind of pressure from Putin to fight with his own soldiers in Ukraine.

Even the expert Valery Karbalevich does not expect that Lukashenko will allow himself to be drawn even deeper into the war. He sees “that the war in Ukraine is going very unsuccessfully for Russia” – and doesn’t want to be on the losing side in the end. He assumes that the drafted Russian soldiers are to be trained in Belarus because Russia’s own military training areas are overburdened with the mass of those drafted.