Ukraine War: Will Putin Use Tactical Nuclear Weapons?

escalation
Threat scenario of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war: “There are actually no longer any borders”

Will Russia go so far as to use nuclear weapons? This question has worried the world since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. With a tactical nuclear weapon, Moscow could win the war – and would break a taboo that has existed since 1945.

On the fourth day of the attack, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons when he “put the Russian army’s deterrent forces on special combat readiness.” These so-called deterrent forces also include nuclear weapons. Since then, the use of tactical nuclear warheads in Ukraine has been one of the possible scenarios for the further development of this war. A tactical nuclear weapon has a smaller explosive charge than a strategic nuclear weapon and, in theory, is also intended for the battlefield.

“Escalation to de-escalation” new rule in the Kremlin

Using conventional weapons, the Russian army has not managed to break the resistance of the Ukrainian armed forces and the population in a month. “The Russians desperately need military victories to convert them into political leverage,” says Mathieu Boulègue of the British think tank Chatham House. “Chemical weapons wouldn’t change the face of war. A tactical nuclear weapon wiping out a Ukrainian city would. It’s unlikely, but not impossible.”

It is unclear what principles apply in Russia to the use of nuclear weapons. Some pundits and military officials, particularly in Washington, claim that Moscow has abandoned the Soviet doctrine of not being the first to use the ultimate weapon. “Escalation to de-escalation” is now the stipulation. Using nuclear weapons on a limited scale to force NATO to withdraw is now an option.

Russia has 1,588 deployed nuclear warheads

However, recent Russian statements cast doubt on this interpretation. Moscow will only use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the event of an “existential threat” to Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told US television channel CNN International on Tuesday. There is no reason “to change our strategic stance on deterrence,” said US Department of Defense spokesman John Kirby.

Russia would be well prepared militarily for a nuclear war: According to the journal Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the arsenal includes 1,588 stationed nuclear warheads, of which 812 are on land-based missiles, 576 on submarines and 200 on bombers. Almost a thousand more warheads are stored.

The Kremlin could use a tactical nuclear weapon “to demoralize its opponent, to prevent the enemy from continuing to fight,” says Pavel Lusin of Moscow’s Riddle Institute. First of all, it’s a show of strength. “But if the opponent still wants to fight after that, it can be used in a more direct way.”

In nuclear war, allies would turn their backs on Russia

Other experts are convinced that Putin will not risk nuclear war, even with tactical weapons that would render a region uninhabitable for decades. “The political costs would be enormous. He would lose what little support he still has. The Indians would turn away, and so would the Chinese,” says William Alberque of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). “I don’t think Putin will do that.”

But since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, many certainties no longer apply. “The initial Rubicon has been crossed, there are actually no longer any borders,” says a Western diplomat. “We have no reason to believe that Putin has no intention of bringing the matter to an end and that he will not use any means to achieve this – possibly by using banned weapons,” he says, thinking at first chemical weapons.

The diplomat still has hope that “the taboo of August 9, 1945” will remain – the day when a US atomic bomb destroyed the Japanese city of Nagasaki.

bw / Daphné Benoit / Didier Lauras
AFP