Even if the unexpected about-face is his trademark, Turkey’s new policy towards Saudi Arabia shows unabashed pragmatism, even by the standards of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While the Turkish head of state had so far officially held the heir to the throne, Mohammed bin Salman, who is all-powerful in Saudi Arabia, as responsible for the murder of the Saudi regime critic Jamal Khashoggi and sought political confrontation with the Saudi at every opportunity, Erdoğan is now meeting the Arab ruler on a state visit ask for help for the ailing Turkish economy. The counter-deal has already been completed: the sensational murder case of regime critic Jamal Khashoggi was passed on to the Saudi public prosecutor’s office by the Turkish judiciary without further ado.
Khashoggi was cruelly eliminated at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in October 2018. The journalist was murdered by a visiting hit team during a visit to the consulate and apparently sawed up before the body parts were taken to an unknown location or burned in the consulate garden: Khashoggi had called to collect documents for the planned marriage to a Turkish citizen.
Internationally, Prince Salman was not only held responsible for the murder by the US secret service: the heir to the throne is considered the unquestioned ruler of the desert state. His elderly, ailing father King Salman, who is now officially welcoming Erdoğan, hardly makes an appearance. The Turk had spoken of a “barbaric murder” and announced a complete investigation by the Turkish judiciary. According to Erdoğan, “the crown prince’s closest entourage played the most important role” in the murder case.
26 defendants, including an ex-adviser to the prince and the former deputy chief of intelligence, were charged in absentia. But in April, Turkey surprisingly dropped the case and handed it over to those who allegedly commissioned the murder: a court handed the case over to Saudi Arabia.
For Erdoğan, there is more at stake than the fate of a Saudi opposition figure
The idea that the Khashoggi case could be atoned for should finally be history. But for Erdoğan, there is more at stake than the fate of a Saudi opposition figure. His lofty plans for leadership in the Middle East, based on the backing of Islamist opposition groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, have come to nothing, at least for now. Instead, around a year before the upcoming new elections, the president is struggling with the decline of the economy, inflation of around 60 percent, the collapse of the national currency, the lira, and the crumbling support of the electorate.
Mainly for economic reasons, the permanent provocateur has to seek reconciliation with his archenemies. And these are the arch-conservative Arab rulers in the Gulf; these regard the Islamist opposition groups as the most dangerous opponents. Above all else, they see the enemy in the Muslim Brotherhood from Egypt, who are active throughout the Middle East and have long been pampered by Erdoğan. The organization is an “incubator for terrorists,” according to Prince Salman.
Even with the pragmatic reconciliation with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) a few months ago, Erdoğan got what he wanted in the end. A currency swap worth five billion US dollars can be used by Ankara’s central bank to intercept the Turkish lira, which has repeatedly found itself in a tailspin. A similar support from the Saudis, hidden in a package of economic cooperation and Saudi investments, could keep Erdoğan’s questionable policy of the lowest possible interest rates and quasi-forced inflation alive.
The Turkey and Middle East expert at the Center for Applied Turkish Studies (CATS) in Berlin, Hürcan Asli Aksoy, put Erdoğan’s new policy towards Riyadh in a nutshell: “Ankara is clearly acting in an interest-based manner,” she told the dpa news agency. Differences such as the Khashoggi case or ideology have long been secondary.