The countries of Southeast Asia are forced into a difficult balancing act with Russia, an economic partner they must preserve, in the face of pressure from the United States to isolate Moscow, before a series of international summits. Three summits are on the program this month: ASEAN in Phnom Penh (from 11 to 13), the G20 in Bali (15 and 16) then the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Forum (Apec) in Bangkok (18 and 19).
Indonesia, in a mediating role, has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky to the G20, but neither leader has confirmed his physical presence. However, the regional bloc of ten countries, which has made non-interference one of its fundamental principles, should not be expected to make a clear choice between kyiv and Moscow.
“ASEAN will continue to cooperate with Russia, maintaining the status quo”, analyzes Joanne Lin, researcher at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. “Many ASEAN member states are good at compartmentalizing problematic issues,” she said. Thailand embodies this third way policy, neither for nor against: the kingdom, like Laos, Vietnam, China and India, abstained from voting in October for the United Nations resolution condemning the “illegal annexations from Russian territories in Ukraine.