The dam broke. After four days and 13 ballotsonly two votes are missing Kevin McCarthy to be elected Speaker of the Chamber, after convincing 15 slingers to vote for him on Friday. The session was adjourned until 10 p.m. (4 a.m., Saturday, Paris time), to allow time for two absent elected officials to return to Congress. And try to convince two of the six die-hard Republicans to rally to his cause, or at least to vote “present” in order to lower the majority threshold.
After an evening of negotiations, optimism was back in the Republican ranks on Friday morning. Kevin McCarthy has agreed to reinstate the rule allowing only one elected person to table a motion of no confidence, and to give more power in the committees at the Freedom Caucus, the parliamentary group to which almost all the rebels belong. One by one, the objectors shouted McCarthy’s name, to applause.
complicated math
The group of “Never Kevin”, led by Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert, melted to only six representatives at the end of the 11th and 12th rounds. In the last vote, Kevin McCarthy received 214 votes. With two allies absent – for a medical problem and a birth – who must return to Washington in the evening, he will be 216 votes out of 434 elected.
The calculations are complex, because the majority (218) changes if elected officials are absent or choose to vote “present”. Kevin McCarthy can be elected via three different scenarios:
– At least two rebels join his cause to reach a majority of 218
– A slinger votes “present” (bringing the majority to 217), and another votes “McCarthy”.
– Three slingers vote “present” (which would make 431 counted votes), McCarthy is elected with a majority of 216 votes.
The victory of the Californian representative is therefore almost assured. But with the multiple concessions given to the rebels, he could become the weakest Speaker in modern history. With a majority that could explode in the first sensitive vote, in particular to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a “shutdown” of the federal state.