In 2024, around thirty countries will appoint their president, while parliamentary elections are planned in around twenty others. And these elections will take place in a troubled international context, with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the war between Hamas and Israel. They will be subject to a risk, more or less significant depending on the country, of disinformation or manipulation linked to artificial intelligence (AI), according to observers. Here is an overview of the most significant elections, when almost half of the world’s population – some 49% according to AFP calculations – will be called to the polls.
United States: the return match?
On November 5, tens of millions of Americans will go to the polls to designate their “electors”, responsible for choosing the tenant of the White House. This 60th American presidential election will probably feel like déjà vu, with an expected return match between outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden, 81, and his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, 77 today.
This possible shock of veterans will be scrutinized after the controversies and false information surrounding the 2020 presidential election. Donald Trump has never admitted his defeat and a certain number of Americans remain convinced that the vote was “stolen” from them.
Russia: the opposition muzzled
Vladimir Putin will be a candidate to succeed him in the presidential election expected in March. Putin, who has ruled Russia for twenty-three years, had the Constitution amended in 2020, theoretically authorizing him to stay in power until 2036, which would make him surpass Joseph Stalin in terms of longevity in the Kremlin.
In recent years, the Russian opposition and civil society have been muzzled against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine: the main political opponents are either exiled or imprisoned, like Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin’s number one enemy; others died or were physically silenced.
India: nearly a billion voters
Some 945 million Indians are called to the polls in May for general elections in this country which will become the most populous in the world in 2023, ahead of China. The BJP, the party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in office since 2014, is widely seen as the winner in the polls, its nationalism appealing to the Hindu majority.
This election will take place in a context of regression in political rights and civil liberties, according to the NGO Freedom House. Led by Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party, once the dominant force now weakened, has attempted to form a grand coalition with disparate regional opposition parties to challenge Mr. Modi.
EU: giant transnational ballot
More than 400 million voters from 27 European countries are called upon to nominate 720 MEPs in early June, during a giant transnational vote. It could be marked by a new surge in Eurosceptic forces, as evidenced by the triumph of the Islamophobic far-right party PVV in the Dutch legislative elections.
This election will take place at a time when immigration is the subject of heated debates in several countries of the Twenty-Seven and when Europeans’ wallets have been hit hard by inflation.
Mexico: female shock
A woman could for the first time become, in June, president of Mexico, an important symbol in this country which records thousands of feminicides per year.
Two women are favorites to succeed outgoing President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador: the former mayor of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum, from the ruling Morena party (left), well ahead in the polls, and senator Xochitl Galvez, for a Front bringing together three opposition parties.
Iran: 18 months after the death of Mahsa Amini
Legislative elections will be held on March 1 in Iran, eighteen months after the death of Mahsa Amini. The death of this young Kurd, after her arrest by the police for an ill-fitting veil, triggered months of massive demonstrations against political and religious leaders. A movement harshly repressed, with hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests.
The previous 2020 election was marked by the massive disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates, virtually reducing the election to a competition between conservatives and ultraconservatives.
Senegal: election under tension
While around ten presidential elections are planned for 2024 in Africa, the scene of eight coups d’état in three years, the election in Senegal, scheduled for February 25, could be marked by tensions. President Macky Sall, in power since 2012, appointed his Prime Minister Amadou Ba as his camp’s candidate in September, a choice contested internally.
On the opposition side, the candidacy of Ousmane Sonko, third in the 2019 presidential election, remains pending. On November 17, the Supreme Court overturned a judgment which put the imprisoned opponent back in the race. The case must be retried. Sonko was convicted in early June and detained in late July on various charges, provoking protests and violence. The opponent denounces a “plot” to torpedo his candidacy, which the government denies.
Venezuela: will the opposition be able to challenge the Chavista regime
In Venezuela, entangled in a serious political and economic crisis which has pushed more than seven million people into exile, the socialist Nicolas Maduro, successor to Hugo Chavez (1999-2013), is aiming for a third term in the second half of 2024. His re-election in 2018, widely considered fraudulent, was not recognized by many countries including the United States.
A large part of the opposition, long divided, united behind the liberal Maria Corina Machado despite her ineligibility. The United States, which in October eased for six months an oil embargo on Venezuela, holder of the world’s largest reserves of black gold, is calling for the lifting of the ineligibility of opponents, including that of Maria Corina Machado.