The declaration did not go unnoticed: Emmanuel Macron spoke on Wednesday evening about his attitude in the event of a nuclear strike by Russia in Ukraine. The threat has hovered more or less seriously since the start of the war, and again since the successes of the Ukrainian counter-attack. What would France do in this case? France’s nuclear deterrence doctrine “is based on the fundamental interests of the nation, they are defined very clearly” and according to the president, Ukraine does not seem to be part of it. Except that it is not really customary to be so clear. 20 minutes sought to find out more from Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the Ifri Security Studies Center, specialist in nuclear deterrence.
Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday evening that the less we talked about his doctrine of deterrence, the more credible we were: precisely, didn’t he say too much?
This is a question that agitates the small world of nuclearists in France and abroad! However, we must be careful in this exegesis: it may be a question of a risky formulation by the President of the Republic who, let us remember, is entirely in control when it comes to deterrence in France. This is also why he is elected by direct universal suffrage. One can however be astonished that he spoke of “fundamental interests”, whereas in the doctrine mentions “vital interests”, and that he affirmed that they are very clear. We can also ask ourselves the question of how these remarks were received by European partners. He was both too specific and not specific enough, referring to the French response to a nuclear strike in Ukraine, but also a strike in the region. Are we talking about EU countries, European countries? This potentially brings nuance to his 2020 speech on his definition of France’s vital interests.
Under Emmanuel Macron precisely, the French nuclear doctrine seemed to take a more European turn?
The European dimension of French deterrence is present from the start and the first doctrine enacted by General de Gaulle. This has been recalled by several Presidents of the Republic since in their speeches. However, this aspect was more extensively commented upon following Emmanuel Macron’s speech in February 2020, as the notion was accompanied by concrete initiatives. The objective was, for example, to offer European partners, in particular eastern countries, the opportunity to observe French nuclear deterrence exercises. The Covid-19 has unfortunately slowed down the dynamic. This declaration was also part of a broader reflection on the relevance of the extended deterrence of the United States during the presidency of Donald Trump, which was likely to harm this policy. It was therefore necessary to better explain French deterrence and its European dimension to European partners, this was not in itself a novelty.
If I understand correctly, the definition of vital interests is quite elastic.
There is no list of vital interests. This is something that is totally in the hands of the president, depending on current events and evolving threats. Obviously, one of the supreme vital interests is the integrity of French territory and the integrity of state institutions, but it can also be energy supply, communication infrastructure… We can imagine a lot of vital interests . The list of operators of vital importance gives an idea of this, but it is not to be confused with the vital interests of France. The characteristic of French deterrence and its ambiguity, necessary to maintain it, is that they are not defined.
The other two nuclear powers of NATO, the UK and the UNITED STATESdid they also have statements as clear as Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday evening?
NATO, via its secretary general, announced “severe consequences” in the event of the use of nuclear weapons in Russia, while Joe Biden repeated on several occasions the risk of “apocalypse” in the event of an use. However, they did not have such clear words and Macron’s statement is therefore commented on by the Anglo-Saxon media. It is possible that discussions will take place between allies to clarify a common position.