ARD-DeutschlandTrend: Asylum policy is the most important issue in the European elections

In just over a month, EU citizens will elect a new parliament. In the ARD GermanyTrend Asylum policy is mentioned as the most important topic. A majority wants the federal budget to comply with the debt brake.

By Thursday, Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner had called on his cabinet colleagues to submit savings proposals for the 2025 federal budget. Now the deadline has been reached – and according to what we know so far, not much has apparently come together.

A look at where the Germans would put the red pencil shows how difficult it is to save. A slim majority (56 percent) is of the opinion that the state should spend less money on citizens’ money; Almost one in three (31 percent) considers spending in this area to be appropriate and one in ten (ten percent) considers it to be too low. When it comes to spending on the integration of refugees, almost one in two people (47 percent) see potential for savings, one in three (34 percent) think the spending in this area is appropriate, and 17 percent think it is too low.

Desire for more spending on care, pensions and children

But when it comes to other subject areas, the picture is more differentiated: When it comes to climate and environmental protection, a relative majority of 39 percent considers government spending to be appropriate; 38 percent are in favor of higher spending in this area, one in five (21 percent) are in favor of savings.

One in two people (48 percent) believe more spending is necessary to promote the economy. 40 percent currently think the efforts are appropriate, one in ten (ten percent) sees savings potential. One in two people (50 percent) are also in favor of higher spending on defense and the Bundeswehr. 32 percent think the expenses here are appropriate, 16 percent think they are too high.

The majority of Germans agree that there needs to be more money in three areas: 55 percent say this with regard to supporting families and children, 58 percent with regard to pensions and pensions and 78 percent with regard to caring for the elderly and sick People. At the same time, hardly anyone eligible to vote sees savings potential in these three areas.

Majority wants to stick to the debt brake

So where does the money come from that should be spent elsewhere? So far, the debt brake in the Basic Law obliges the federal government to only spend as much money as it takes in. Exceptions are only permitted in special situations such as during the corona pandemic.

In view of the multitude of important issues, parts of the SPD and the Greens fundamentally want to tackle the debt brake. This would require a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and Bundesrat. Christian Lindner and his FDP fundamentally reject this – as does a narrow majority of those eligible to vote. Because 54 percent are in favor of sticking to the debt brake. Four out of ten Germans would like to loosen the restrictions, for example for public investments.

The majority of supporters of the FDP (70 percent), AfD (66 percent), Union (63 percent) and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW, 60 percent) are in favor of the debt brake. Among SPD supporters, however, the opinion prevails that the debt brake should be relaxed: 55 percent are in favor of such a relaxation, 40 percent are against it. Among Green Party supporters, seven out of ten (70 percent) are in favor of easing the restrictions, while 29 percent want to maintain the debt brake.

Hardly any movement on Sunday’s question about the Bundestag

There have been some shifts in the Sunday question since the beginning of the year, partly due to the founding of the BSW. This month, however, there are hardly any changes compared to the beginning of April.

If there were a federal election on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD would currently get 15 percent. The Union improved slightly by one point in the Sunday question and would reach 31 percent. The Greens are still at 15 percent. The FDP climbs over the mandate threshold and is currently at five percent (plus one point). The AfD remains stable at 18 percent. BSW remains at five percent on the Sunday question. All other parties would account for eleven percent (minus two points).

AfD supporters think dealing with Krah is exaggerated

This would mean that the AfD would remain the second strongest force. The allegations against the AfD’s top candidate for the upcoming European elections, Maximilian Krah, of having accepted money from Russia and China – and the arrest of one of his employees for possible espionage for China – have no impact on Sunday’s question.

The majority of AfD supporters defend their leading candidate in the European elections: 77 percent think it is exaggerated how the public is treating Krah because of the current allegations. 15 percent of AfD supporters don’t think this is exaggerated. The view of all eligible voters is different: six out of ten Germans (61 percent) do not consider the treatment of Krah to be excessive, one in four (25 percent) think it is excessive.

At the same time, seven out of ten Germans think that the AfD should reconsider its proximity to Russia (71 percent) and China (70 percent). Among AfD supporters, 37 percent think the party should reconsider its proximity to China; Almost every second person (48 percent) doesn’t think so. 31 percent of AfD supporters believe the party should reconsider its proximity to Russia; A majority of AfD supporters (57 percent) see it differently.

Voter potential the AfD almost unchanged

The AfD has only lost slightly in voter potential in recent months. In September 2023, every fourth eligible voter (24 percent) was in principle eligible to vote for the AfD. This currently applies to 23 percent – a decrease of just one percentage point since September.

For seven out of ten eligible voters (71 percent), voting for the AfD is currently fundamentally out of the question (minus one point compared to September 2023).

Among the other parties, it is the BSW supporters who are most likely to consider voting for the AfD: 19 percent of BSW supporters say this; For almost two thirds of BSW supporters (64 percent), voting for the AfD is out of the question.

Asylum policy is the most important issue in the European elections

A new parliament will be elected in Europe on June 9th. Five and a half weeks before the election, only just under one in three eligible voters (31 percent) are satisfied with EU policy. Almost two thirds, however, are dissatisfied with it.

Citizens see refugee, asylum and integration policy as the most important problem that the European Union needs to address particularly urgently. When asked openly, 41 percent named this complex as one of the two most important problems.

International conflicts and threats follow, for example in relation to Russia and China (34 percent), environmental and climate protection (21 percent) and the economy and competitiveness (20 percent).

A concrete measure with which the EU wants to limit the number of refugees are agreements with third countries. The principle is: The EU offers countries the prospect of financial aid if, in return, they prevent refugees from traveling on to the EU. After Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia, the EU concluded another refugee agreement with Lebanon this Thursday. Every second eligible voter in Germany (51 percent) is in favor of these agreements, four out of ten (38 percent) think this is wrong.

Sunday question on the European elections: Union in first place

A good five weeks before the European elections, the Union is clearly ahead on the Sunday question. If there were European elections on Sunday, the Union would get 30 percent (European elections 2019: 28.9 percent). The Greens would have 15 percent (2019: 20.5 percent). The SPD is currently at 14 percent (2019: 15.8 percent). The AfD would improve to 15 percent (2019: 11 percent). The FDP would be four percent (2019: 5.4 percent).

The BSW, which has not yet taken part in a European election, currently has seven percent. All other parties would account for 15 percent (2019: 18.4 percent).

This survey is expressly not a forecast, but rather about the political mood in the current week. The Sunday question measures current voting tendencies and not actual voting behavior. It determines an interim status in the opinion-forming process of the electorate, which is not completed until election Sunday.

Conclusions about the outcome of the election are therefore only possible to a limited extent. Many voters decide at short notice before an election. The final phase of the election campaign with the targeted targeting of undecided and tactical voters is also very important.

Five and a half weeks before election day, every second eligible voter in Germany (49 percent) is very or very interested in the European elections – that is four percentage points less than before the 2019 European elections; However, the survey took place only three and a half weeks before the election. 48 percent are currently less or not at all interested in the European elections (plus one point).