A weekend in Rome (for the G20), a Monday in Glasgow (for the COP26): Emmanuel Macron has a big international streak on the occasion of the weekend of All Saints. In reality, it was the Head of State’s entire return to school which was dominated by international issues. The submarine crisis with Australia and the United States, tensions with Algeria, the United Kingdom and Mali… Meanwhile, six months before the presidential election, Jean Castex went to the front to speak the main concern of French women and men these days: purchasing power and soaring energy prices.
Emmanuel Macron and his relatives know it without a doubt: foreign affairs is rarely, if not never, a very profitable theme in presidential campaigns. Political historian Jean Garrigues, interviewed by 20 minutes, may look in his memory … “No, it was never a major subject. Even during the first election by universal suffrage, in 1965 with General De Gaulle, when questions of national independence and non-alignment were major axes of his policy ”.
“That makes president”
The president of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly, the Modem Jean-Louis Bourlanges, tempers this observation. By noting that European questions can be major: “It was very important in 2017 in the victory of Emmanuel Macron against a Marine Le Pen unable to assume an exit from the euro, and therefore from the ‘Europe’, he explains to 20 minutes. But was it not seen more, at the time, as an economic issue?
In the eyes of an outgoing president in search of re-election, international relations have at least one important advantage: “that makes president” when the others are “only candidates”, recognizes Jean Garrigues. “It puts you above the fray, gives you an element of credibility, of legitimation.” In 1988, François Mitterrand, in search of a second seven-year term, had played this verse, in particular in his legendary campaign clip. At the end of a pop and rhythmic chronology of the history of France since the Revolution, the first socialist president of the Fifth Republic appears in the middle of international conferences, alongside Reagan, Thatcher. And as a highlight, hand in hand with Helmut Kohl, the German Chancellor, near Verdun.
An electoral instrumentalisation of crises
There is, on this level, the question of the influence of France: “It makes the French proud to have a president who weighs”, analysis near 20 minutes the LREM vice-president of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National Assembly, Isabelle Rauch. The recent diplomatic crises – which loaded the Elyos agenda to an unprecedented point for an end of mandate, believes Jean Garrigues – gave the opportunity to Emmanuel Macron to draw this type of presidential portrait. To the point of instrumentalizing these crises to turn them into a campaign argument?
Jean-Louis Bourlanges is betting on the president’s sincerity: “I believe that Emmanuel Macron is fundamentally concerned about playing an international role. He wants France to take the lead in a number of fights: against global warming, for the rise of a united Europe … I believe that this is not a calculation linked to the electoral calendar, even if its initiatives help to shape an image that is not without political implications. “
Billions and votes?
Here we are. Emmanuel Macron has made his activism on the international scene – starting with his speech “Make your planet great again”, less than a month after taking office – and especially in Europe, a trademark from the start. And the deputy for Moselle Isabelle Rauch believes that this had “concrete translations” for the French: “For example, our president is really at the initiative of the European recovery plan”, which will bring several billion dollars. euros to France. And why not, also, voices to the Head of State.
Especially since it is not over. On January 1, 2022, at the dawn of the final sprint of the presidential campaign, Emmanuel Macron and France will assume the rotating presidency of the European Union. According to Isabelle Rauch, it could be a weapon for him, “because he has been a European president from the start”, she judges. In any case, he will have room to say it, since the CSA recently announced that when Emmanuel Macron speaks in the media to talk about the French presidency of the EU, this speaking time will not be counted.
“A secondary weapon”
This advantage – if it is indeed one – does not seem decisive for Jean Garrigues. He admittedly admits that the rotating presidency of the EU by France can be a weapon, “but a secondary weapon”. “We must not have too many illusions. The presidency of the EU gives you more visibility than real power, judges Jean-Louis Bourlanges. The presiding state is never really in control of the agenda. A European project takes two or three years to complete. So, during your six months of presidency, you are the heir to the children of others and you do not have time to watch your own grow up. “
“You can be a great awakener of conscience and initiator of initiatives”, adds all the same the former MEP. To shine, we will therefore bet more on crises. In this area, previous French presidencies have been served: in the second half of 1989, François Mitterrand had to face the fall of the Berlin Wall and the Iron Curtain. And in 2008, Nicolas Sarkozy faced the financial crisis. But in these two cases, the tenants of the Elysee were not in the countryside. Especially since such global earthquakes are double-edged. If successful, the president-candidate embodies the captain in the storm and can hope to derive electoral benefits. But otherwise, the other candidates will not miss it.