He was boring as fuck, this one Tesla Investor Day, and if you don’t believe it: not even the head of the electric car manufacturer seemed to be really enthusiastic about what was being presented in the new company headquarters in Austin, Texas. Elon Musk took the stage a total of three times; In between, however, he did not listen to the lectures of his highest-ranking employees for more than three hours, but wrote Twitter entries – not about Tesla.
He commented on venture capitalist David Sacks’ assessment of the war in Ukraine; then he briefly poked fun at left-liberal moderator Keith Olberman, whose account had recently been banned; and then he commented on Congressman Mike Lee’s Twitter ban, which has since been lifted.
Musk had promised “a message full of hope and optimism” – for people who not only invest in his company, but in sustainable energy and thus in the future of the planet. He wanted to present the “Master Plan 3” and those who are familiar with the entire work of the visionary, revolutionary and disruptor expected something visionary, revolutionary and disruptive – i.e.: vehicles or maybe even airplanes; Information on the infrastructure of the Supercharger charging stations; What’s new about the autopilot that Tesla is currently being sued for allegedly making false promises.
In short: an Elon Musk show full of crazy ideas and megalomaniac promises. It may well be that some invest in the group or even in the continued existence of the earth; most are still investing in: Elon Musk. That was also one of the reasons why the share price has plummeted in recent months: Musk seemed to have lost interest in Tesla a bit; recently he seems to have been inspired by his Twitter crusade for “free speech” and against traditional media. That’s why this Austin date was so important, people expected: old-school musk.
“The demand for our cars could well be infinite”
What this one Tesla Investor Day However, it was: a series of introductory seminars in mechanical engineering, production and automation technology, robotics, design art and corporate culture. Tesla presented itself as miles ahead of other automakers in technology and efficiency and on track to produce 20 million vehicles a year, more than twice as many as, for example, Toyota today.
It seemed more like an event to lure engineers to Tesla; the presentation by the second woman that afternoon (the first came on stage after an hour and a half) went well with this, how great it was to work at Tesla – Laurie Shelby’s statements can be accepted in view of the history of complaints about discrimination (both skin color as well as gender) as daring. Like Musk’s later, he was briefly the good old megalomaniac: “The demand for our cars could well be endless.”
A short insert, because that’s important with the forecasts that were made in the lectures – surprisingly often with graphics without specific figures: Before the start of the proseminars, a disclaimer could be seen on the screen behind the stage; the 496 words can be summed up as follows: it may not all happen as it is portrayed today – for internal or external reasons. Don’t let us down on that! If nothing crazy is presented afterwards, but only a few very big and general goals for sustainable energy, then that is: boring as a chime.
“Today we produced the four millionth vehicle in the company’s history, you may have missed it in the tour earlier,” Musk said. Tesla has produced one million cars in the past seven months; to stay with the comparison with Toyota: The Japanese carmaker is likely to produce almost ten million vehicles in this fiscal year.
Wait a minute: Is it really bad that this afternoon was dead boring and Tesla comes across as a perfectly normal company that wants to become the largest in the world in its field? Isn’t that exactly what critics keep asking for: less promises, more production. Fewer visions, more concrete plans. That’s exactly what Musk delivered, even if it may have seemed boring.
Last year, Tesla’s Model Y was the best-selling electric car in Germany
Tesla has long been out of “production hell”, as Musk once called car building. And if you only take the core business, i.e. building and selling cars, then the electric car manufacturer delivers. Tesla recently managed a profit margin of 17 percent – that’s more than Mercedes, BMW or VW. And only with e-cars, which the long-established car manufacturers still sell for much less profit than combustion engines. Most of the profits of German manufacturers still come from the petrol and diesel business.
For a long time it was said that as soon as enough other manufacturers brought e-cars onto the market, i.e. the competition became tougher, Tesla would lose its pioneering role. At least on the German car market, it doesn’t look like it. Last year, the Model Y was the best-selling e-car in Germany, followed directly by the Model 3. And even in January 2023, when the German e-car market shrank due to the cut environmental premium, around one in four e-cars came from Tesla.
The fact that Tesla is holding up so well is of course also due to Elon Musk’s pricing policy. At the beginning of the year he drastically reduced prices in Germany, since then a Model Y has cost up to 9100 euros less. Because VW did just the opposite and increased the prices for its cars by four percent, Tesla received an extra boost. That’s exactly what Musk ultimately said in his infinite demand claim: “What we’ve learned is that demand isn’t so much about wanting something – it’s about being able to afford it.” This isn’t really a groundbreaking finding, but Musk said, “Even small changes in price have a big impact on demand.”
In addition, despite all the semiconductor shortages, Tesla has always managed to deliver its cars within a few months. This is also a competitive advantage over German manufacturers, who still specify delivery times of well over a year for some electric models. That was also one of the big messages of the presentations: We’ve been through hell, we’ll be able to deliver reliably now too. A new factory in Mexico should help – which the Mexican President Andrés Manuel Lopéz Obrador had already indicated the day before. It is the third factory outside the US after Berlin and Shanghai and is extremely attractive for automakers because of the lower wages and duty-free access to the US market.
The share price fell more than 5 percent in after-hours trading
In China too, Tesla is the only foreign manufacturer to hold its ground in the local e-car market. Among the ten best-selling electric cars: Eight Chinese models and two Teslas. Volkswagen? Mercedes? BMW? Almost never happen there. Although Tesla also lowered prices in China when sales were no longer going so well, it worked there too. However: The Chinese manufacturer BYD dominates the market at home and now wants to enter Europe, especially in Germany. This is dangerous for Tesla.
The group must also maintain its pace, Elon Musk’s target is to grow car sales by at least 50 percent every year, and by 2030 he wants to sell 20 million vehicles. Such plans are nothing more than to become the largest car manufacturer in the world – that is, to earn as much money as possible with a well-known principle.
So Musk didn’t present anything groundbreaking on Wednesday, he cleverly dodged questions from investors (since the Cybertruck presentation in 2019, when the supposedly unbreakable windows broke, the group hasn’t invited any representatives of traditional media to its events). The Cybertruck and two vehicles under white tarpaulins were shown on the slides behind the speakers; it had been suggested that Musk might come up with a super cheap model and a robotaxi. He just said: “It would be too early to answer these questions now; we will have a proper product event for this.”
That should be urgently needed, Tesla investors found this afternoon: boring as hell, the Tesla share price fell by more than five percent in after-hours trading. Still, Musk didn’t lie with his promise. It really was a message of hope and optimism – just not to investors, but more to himself.