Volodimir Zelenskiy did not use the T-word at the Munich Security Conference at the weekend. The Ukrainian president only said that his country did not have “long-range weapons.” The most important thing now is airspace defense, Zelenskiy added. And in every conversation with participants from Kiev the cry was: “Artillery ammunition, artillery ammunition, artillery ammunition!”
This does little to change the fact that the debate in Germany revolves primarily around a weapon system that Ukraine requested nine months ago: air-launched Taurus-Cruise missiles that, according to the manufacturer MBDA, have a range of more than 500 kilometers. They fall into the category of weapons that Zelensky named. And Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) let him know in the fall that he had no plans to comply with this request for the time being.
There are many supporters of delivery in the FDP and the Greens
A showdown is imminent in the Bundestag on Thursday, which should once again document the disunity of the traffic light government on this issue. The fronts have been clear for months: While there is a lot of sympathy for a delivery in the FDP and the Greens, the SPD is in favor of the Chancellor. The discussions on a motion for a resolution on Russia’s war against Ukraine have now resulted in a traffic light-style compromise.
“In particular, Ukraine must continue to be able to carry out attacks on military targets such as ammunition depots, supply routes and command posts far behind the front lines,” says the latest draft. The Bundestag therefore welcomes the deliveries of “guided missiles from our French and British partners to Ukraine”. What is meant are those that are identical in construction Storm Shadow and SCALPof which London and Paris delivered a three-digit number.
The use of precise stand-off weapons for national defense is “compatible with international law and indispensable for the protection of Ukraine,” it is emphasized. From the perspective of the Greens and the FDP, it can be seen that there is no reasonable reason for Ukraine Taurus withheld – and also no other system in the Bundeswehr’s inventory that corresponds to the definition given. Specific weapon systems were never mentioned in similar applications anyway. It was still important to the SPD that Taurus is not explicitly mentioned and therefore delivery is not required according to the social democratic interpretation.
The Union already tried in mid-January to get the loud ones Taurus-To force supporters in the government factions to show their colors with a roll-call vote in the Bundestag, such as the chairwoman of the Defense Committee and the FDP’s top candidate in the European elections, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann or the Green politician Anton Hofreiter. Back then there were no dissenters from the traffic lights.
The SPD parliamentary group leader calls for solidarity within the traffic light government
This time things could be different. The CDU and CSU will again submit their own motion in which they demand the “immediate delivery of the requested weapon systems available in Germany (including TAURUS)”. Strack-Zimmermann, who is to speak as her group’s keynote speaker in the debate, announced loudly Picture-newspaper, she will “also vote for the Union faction’s motion to change the era in the plenary session” – which is possible due to separate votes on the two proposals. How many traffic light MPs do the same will also be a measure of discipline and dissatisfaction in the coalition.
SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich criticized the FDP politician’s announcement as a lack of solidarity. “Anyone who joined this coalition knew that they had to support a government in difficult times. If they have a different view, that has to be clarified in the respective parliamentary group.” Anyone who thinks that the biggest land war since the end of the Second World War can be solved with a weapon system alone, “I think they are wrong.”
The Greens are rubbing their eyes in amazement at the announcement, as Strack-Zimmermann had recently accused the Union of party tactics. However, the FDP was unable to achieve the goal publicly declared by the defense politician, which was explicitly stated in the traffic light proposal Taurus-Call delivery. The SPD prevented this from happening in the negotiations, which those involved described as hard and lengthy.
However, such a requirement would only have a limited effect. It is not the Bundestag, but the Federal Security Council, which meets in secret, that decides on arms deliveries. In practice, however, these fall into the comparatively small area of exclusive decisions made by the Chancellor. “Germany is supplying the weapons that are important now,” he said in an SZ interview last week, simply when asked Taurus.
So far there is no indication that Chancellor Scholz is changing his position
Scholz does not openly disclose his concerns about a delivery. What is known, however, is that they primarily revolve around long range and the ability to attack targets deep in Russia. Of course, MPs can try to pressure Scholz to change his mind. But they cannot force him, and so far there is no indication that the Chancellor will change his position.
Ukraine has not yet given up, as Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba made clear in Munich. “The fact that you don’t hear a clear no is an answer in itself,” he said – Scholz had also rejected tank deliveries for some time. Perhaps, it is hoped, he will change course if the reports that the USA is more ATACMS-Deliver missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers.