State elections on Sunday: why the SPD is ahead in the Saar

Change of power in the Saar? SPD top candidate Rehlinger has a good chance of replacing the CDU as the strongest party in the state elections on Sunday. Her election campaign is neither outstanding nor particularly creative.

She campaigns like an incumbent. “The Saarlanders know me” is one of Anke Rehlinger’s favorite phrases these weeks. Based on Angela Merkel’s “You know me”, with which she defended her chancellorship in 2013. Only Rehlinger is neither Chancellor nor Prime Minister of Saarland.

In any case, she wants to change the latter. And she can actually build on her fame. The 45-year-old SPD politician has been a member of the Saarland state government for ten years, significantly longer than incumbent Tobias Hans. He only came into the cabinet in 2018 – he inherited the office from Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who went to Berlin at the time.

The chances for Rehlinger are pretty good. Your SPD comes to 37 percent in the most recent Saarland Trend by Infratest dimap. She is still holding the CDU at a distance of six points, even if this gap has narrowed somewhat compared to February.

Triumph after 22 years?

If she actually wins, it would be a triumph for the SPD: After a good 22 years of CDU rule, she could move back into the state chancellery. Rehlinger knows that she mustn’t get cocky now, that despite the lead, nothing has been won yet. She’s a burned child. In 2017 she was her party’s top candidate. At that time she challenged the incumbent Kramp-Karrenbauer.

Rehlinger was in the slipstream of the euphoria surrounding SPD chancellor candidate Martin Schulz, and in polls was neck and neck with Kramp-Karrenbauer. But in the end it stopped the social democratic euphoria with a surprising and brilliant 40.7 percent victory. That hurt. Rehlinger had to classify himself. Don’t give up, keep fighting: Maybe she can do that better than others. The law graduate was once a successful track and field athlete. She has held the Saarland record in shot put since 1996.

As Economics Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, she waited for the next opportunity. It came faster than expected when Hans took office. Hardly anyone in the country knew him, quite differently from the popular Kramp-Karrenbauer. Grinning, Rehlinger commented on the change at the time: “There were perhaps strategic field disadvantages. Then let’s just turn them into advantages and look to 2022 and then step on the gas.”

First of all, however, Hans shone. In the corona pandemic, he attracted attention. Meanwhile, Rehlinger was the crisis manager for the companies. It wasn’t always crowned with success. Economically, the Saarland continued to separate itself from the national average during her term of office. The country is in the midst of a painful structural change. Thousands of jobs are at stake.

Jobs are Rehlinger’s big topic

As a minister, however, she was often on site, even where there was nothing left to gain. In the traditional company Halberg Guss, for example, which finally had to close in 2020 after a long struggle. Rehlinger went to the employees who were left with nothing and was close to tears when the closure was publicly announced. It is also these moments that make Rehlinger appear more approachable than the incumbent, although – unlike him – she publicly reveals little that is private.

She is also focusing on the issue of jobs in the election campaign. The goal: 400,000 jobs subject to social security contributions in Saarland. That’s only a few thousand more than before. Critics call that unambitious. On the other hand, a lot would be gained in the country if the existing jobs could be saved, given the economic structure, which is characterized by the steel and automotive industries.

There are no major differences in content

The fact that Rehlinger does so well in the polls is not due to the outstanding election campaign or particular creativity in setting the topics. In terms of content, the CDU and SPD differ rather in nuances, for example on the issue of wind power expansion, which the SPD wants to push more strongly, or on voting rights at 16. The CDU has taken over many SPD positions, for example in the area of ​​education.

Rehlinger uses this, referring to “the original” during the election campaign. The Union’s mistakes are also useful for them, for example Hans’ blunder with his campaign team, which included an anti-corona demonstrator who had to leave immediately. Or the ridicule he earned from the gas station for his Twitter video. You probably also benefit from general CDU fatigue, both in the federal government and in Saarland.

Role reversal instead of policy change?

But it seems questionable that there will be a real new beginning with the SPD. There are many indications that a grand coalition will continue to govern in the future, under different auspices, with Prime Minister Rehlinger. During the election campaign, Rehlinger emphasized several times that she has great sympathy for this alliance, even if she does not rule out coalitions with the FDP and the Greens. But both parties are worried about entering the state parliament.

Rehlinger cannot really shine in this election campaign. But it doesn’t have to be either, thanks to the weaknesses in content and campaign tactics that the CDU allows itself. If Rehlinger doesn’t make a huge mistake in the last few meters, it could work this time with the change in the State Chancellery.