There is great concern that the war between Hamas terrorists and Israel will spread to Lebanon. A lot depends on Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. He has announced another speech for today.
Hassan Nasrallah speaks in the afternoon. As usual, the head of the radical Islamic Hezbollah militia will appear on millions of screens, dressed in dark clothing and wearing a black turban. At the same time, the Islamic-Arab summit is meeting in the Saudi capital Riyadh. However, the Hezbollah leader’s words carry more weight in the Islamic Arab world than any summit declaration.
“Labeika ya Nasrallah” – “We greet you Nasrallah,” thousands of people chanted in the Shiite districts of Beirut a week ago when Hezbollah’s secretary general appeared for the first time since the outbreak of war and threatened that all options were open and the fighters were ready.
As aggressive as Nasrallah may sound, he has so far avoided major confrontation, leaving his extensive missile arsenal supplied by Iran in the underground silos. Whether Israel’s war against Hamas remains limited to the Gaza Strip or spreads to Lebanon and Syria to the entire region will become clear in the Lebanese-Israeli border area.
The intensity of the fighting increases
With each passing day, the intensity of the fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli army increases. Every day there are more injuries and deaths. But the attacks are still limited to the area near the border.
“Hezbollah is not eager to be drawn into this war. The hope is that, ideally, Hamas can inflict so many losses on the Israelis that it doesn’t have to take action itself in the end,” says Heiko Wimmen, an analyst at the International Crisis Group Beirut. “If it actually comes to all-out war, then the destruction in Lebanon will be terrible.”
All scenarios seem conceivable
What if? This is a question on everyone’s minds, because it could also be about existence: What if Hezbollah, which has been heavily armed by Iran, and Israel actually clash and the border war escalates: If Beirut is then bombed, Hezbollah rockets detonate in Tel Aviv and take effect Then the USA invades the Mediterranean with its fleet, will there then be a major war with Iran? Everything seems to be conceivable at the moment.
In the winding corridors of Lebanese politics, only dark-minded doubters can currently be found. The various factions and groups are retreating more and more into closed circles in order to prepare for worst-case scenarios, says Ali Hamdan. He is an influential advisor to the Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri: “We don’t want war here. But the corridor is getting narrower and narrower. It’s as if the world is heading towards war rather than peace.”