A depression is deepening this Wednesday over the Balearic Islands and causing rain-snow degradation from the Gulf of Lion to New Aquitaine. This disturbance gives significant accumulations in places. However, the forecast remains delicate with numerous differences between models, due to the intensity of precipitation and the level of temperatures in particular.
Wednesday: start of the rainy-snowy episode in Aquitaine
The first flakes are observed since 5 a.m. south of the Garonne. With the very low temperatures, this snow has no problem sticking to the ground. The departments most affected are between the north of Gironde and Limousin.
From 7 a.m., this snow gains towards the interior of the south of Gironde and the Landes, while it is rain on the coasts and the Pyrénées-Atlantiques. The floors can therefore be whitened temporarily, even in the Bordeaux metropolitan area. A dusting of a few centimeters is expected, but a high risk of icy conditions is associated, leading you to exercise the greatest caution in your movements.
© The Weather Channel
With the mild weather during the day, snow often mixes with rain in the afternoon in the Aquitaine basin, thus melting the snow. It is in the evening that we expect further cooling with the drawdown of cold air, behind the low pressure minimum. The snowfall will increase over the central massif and the snow will begin to mix with the rain all the way to the plains of Occitanie. Only the Mediterranean coast will be spared rain, due to positive temperatures.
Thursday: up to 10 cm in the Toulouse plain?
Uncertainties still remain for Thursday. Our model predicts that snowfall will last all night until the plains. The layer could then be quite substantial, 2 to 5 cm on averagefrom the middle Garonne valley to the Aude valley and locally up to 10 cm. The reliefs will of course be much better served with 10 to 30 cm, beyond 800 meters altitude. Negative temperatures in the plains will allow this snow to hold on untreated roads. So stay informed on our site to, if necessary, postpone your trips this Thursday morning, in particular in the following departments: Gers, Tarn-et-Garonne, Lot, Tarn, Haute-Garonne, Aude, Haute-Pyrénées, Ariège and Pyrénées-Orientales.
These forecasts will be subject to change, even if the risk is confirmed for the previously mentioned regions. The situation remains complex with a surface depression which will form in Occitania, a bit like what happened in the Paris basin this Monday evening and Tuesday.