Schwesig and Giffey: Two SPD women before the practical test

Some see Manuela Schwesig and Franziska Giffey as competitors for higher ranks in the party. But first you have to choose. And then there is the complicated power arithmetic of the SPD.

Both are facing a practical test in their federal states and want to be elected head of government – on the same day that the German Bundestag is elected. Both have been family ministers in the Merkel cabinet before. And both women are power-conscious, “U50” and of East German origin, they belong to the liberal-pragmatic center-camp of the SPD – and would therefore be predestined to play an even more important role in a future Scholz SPD.

Now all they have to do is win their elections. For Manuela Schwesig, who has been Prime Minister in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania for around four years, this should almost be a sure-fire success. Nevertheless, it is her first choice in this place – she came into office without a state election as the successor to the seriously ill Prime Minister Erwin Sellering. She is the first woman there, and her current approval ratings are good. As things stand today, it should win the state elections, the SPD is loud with 36 percent infratest dimap there even far above the values ​​of the Federal SPD of currently 25 percent.

It is unclear whether the plagiarism affair harms Giffey in the election

Franziska Giffey, in turn, wants to succeed Michael Müller (SPD) as governing mayor of Berlin. Your election success depends heavily on the question of whether the Berlin voters look for inaccuracies in their doctoral thesis.

The 43-year-old has been known in Berlin for a long time: As the bustling former mayor of the Neukölln district. Your polls and those of the SPD are currently increasing in line with the new federal trend of the party around Chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz. Nevertheless, she should also have something of her own: Her course of dealing very pragmatically with green issues such as climate protection – and at the same time focusing on cleanliness and internal security in the city, seems to be well received.

Just don’t come across as ideological

Just don’t argue and appear ideologically, seems to be her motto, and just not too green: She consciously wants to distance herself from the current red-red-green politics of the city. She was against a completely car-free city center, she told the “Welt”, she was relying on clean drives, hydrogen, electric cars, e-fuels – “and offers instead of bans”.

Should Giffey make it to the government post in Berlin, it will undoubtedly strengthen her position in the party – especially since she fits Scholz’s understanding of politics. Both appreciate each other from the collaboration in the Merkel cabinet. And yet: The politician who was struck by the plagiarism affair will have to prove herself first in the state of Berlin.

Schwesig stands out – in whatever office

In turn, SPD circles are already rumoring about Manuela Schwesig that she could become the next SPD chairwoman. She was already noticed in 2014 in the Ministry of Family Affairs with her very own head: At that time, she challenged a 32-hour week for parents, which is subsidized with tax revenues and thus paid like a full-time job. A proposal that was apparently not discussed with the Chancellery and its party leadership and was quickly cashed in by the government spokesman.

As head of the state, she recently made a name for herself nationwide in the corona pandemic by often playing the counterpart to Chancellor Merkel on various channels from talk shows to Instagram. Although she never fundamentally questioned the cautious policy course, she set her own accents – sometimes with non-partisan forged alliances among the prime ministers. During the pandemic months in particular, its political weight grew both inside and outside the party.

With an election victory, all doors will be open to her in the SPD

If she should now achieve a resplendent success as Prime Minister, many or even all doors in the SPD will certainly be open to her. However, the question of a future party chairmanship will of course also depend heavily on Olaf Scholz’s performance. If he gets a decent result for the SPD or even Chancellor, it is very likely that this will also have consequences for the SPD’s power arithmetic.

It is conceivable, however, that in the event of an election victory, calls from the Scholz camp could be loud that want to see him in the party leadership. Chancellery and party chairmanship in one hand: That would then be the Schröder or Brandt model. Perhaps Scholz would be well advised, in the case of a chancellorship won for the SPD, not to question the currently cleverly balanced power structure (one wing in the government, one in the party chairmanship). He would be pragmatic enough to do this – and when in doubt, the Chancellery is a lot more important to him than the party chairmanship.

Amazing unity of the SPD

Because Scholz owes the astonishing unity with which the Social Democrats are currently gathering behind him, above all the party leaders Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans and the left wing around the ex-Juso chairman Kevin Kühnert. They ensure that there is currently calm in the party. Because the party, with its various schools of thought and wings that continue to exist, is in reality anything but closed. Esken and Walter-Borjans had won the SPD’s membership decision for party chairmanship against Scholz in 2019.

Does Scholz fail – momentum for Schwesig?

Should Scholz lose the general election, however, that might be Manuela Schwesig’s momentum as the future party leader – and / or the next candidate for chancellor. She certainly has the will to do so. After all, the 47-year-old had already stepped in as interim boss in June 2019, when Andrea Nahles surprisingly withdrew from the party leadership due to dwindling support within the party.

And even then, she took a liking to the assumptions that she could be the successor. However, for health reasons it was the wrong time for her: A breast cancer diagnosis, which she deliberately made public, led to her withdrawal from the party offices.

Some media see Schwesig and Giffey as future competitors for higher ranks. But Schwesig and Giffey will be pragmatic enough to rely on cooperation instead of competition. In 2018, Schwesig, together with Netzwerk Ost, campaigned for Giffey as family minister. Both belong to a generation and a type of woman who is more likely to stick to the motto of former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright: “There is a special place in hell for women who do not help other women.”