Russia’s war against Ukraine: “Winter offensive was unsuccessful”

Russia’s army “didn’t succeed in its winter offensive,” says defense expert Nico Lange in an interview. The course of the war shows that the Russian army is weaker than assumed. What does this mean for Ukraine’s partners?

tagesschau.de: These days it is said again and again that the Russian winter offensive has failed. What are the signs?

Nico Long: So far in this war, Russia has not been able to achieve any of its military goals. And Russia did not succeed in the winter offensive either. We know of very high losses on the Russian side. But Russia, despite huge months of effort, is struggling to capture even smaller cities like Bakhmut and Avdiivka and is far from making any kind of strategic progress. This winter offensive was unsuccessful.

tagesschau.de: What do you see as the main reason why the Russians did not achieve these goals?

“Correcting Mythical Ideas”

Longing: There is a myth that once the Russians really get going, Russia will be infinitely strong and the Ukrainians will be hopelessly outnumbered. But we can see that the reality of this war is different. Russia is weaker than many assumed.

The procedure during this winter offensive, throwing masses of infantry to the front and trying to conquer further Ukrainian territory with high losses, obviously achieved little. During the past few months of the Russian offensive, Russia was able to conquer an additional 0.02 percent of Ukrainian territory – and at five-digit losses.

Basically, Russia must ask itself what else it can achieve in this war – apart from continuing it and suffering high losses. For us, it is a reminder to correct the mythical image of Russia’s strength and Ukraine’s weakness. A defense against this Russian war of aggression is militarily possible.

“Russia doesn’t have a lot of resources up its sleeve”

tagesschau.de: In Bakhmut, Russia relies primarily on the mercenaries of the Wagner troops, suffering great losses. Does this indicate that the army leadership is conserving its resources for further fighting in the spring?

Longing: In Russia there are certainly thoughts about a possible counter-offensive by Ukraine. But I don’t get the impression that Russia has big resources in reserve. I don’t see why Russia should do that either. It is a great failure for Putin not to have made even small conquests that he could exploit internally for propaganda purposes.

What we see is the current capabilities of the Russian armed forces. It’s not nearly as high as many thought. The fact that Russia cannot use its air force, for example, as it did over Syria, is not because the aircraft are being held somewhere in reserve, but because Russia has never established air sovereignty, and because the Ukrainian air defense has been constantly improving and that in a long war, Russia has major problems with the wear and tear and maintenance of its own aircraft.

“Ukrainian approach seems to be working”

tagesschau.de: At the same time, a spring offensive by the Ukrainians is expected. To what extent have Western arms deliveries in recent months improved Ukraine’s options?

Longing: Ukraine’s basic approach seems to be working, holding the front line against Russian attacks while forming new units, arming them with the late but eventually delivered infantry fighting vehicles and main battle tanks, and training them.

It is now a question of these units continuing to practice so that they can use the different weapon systems effectively at the same time in a coordinated manner. You have to practice and that takes time. Once the Ukrainian units have completed these exercises, they have a good chance of breaking through the current front line with a counter-offensive and liberating other areas.

“Europeans too slow in ammunition production”

tagesschau.de: The US Department of Defense is said to be skeptical about the Ukrainian army’s ability to launch an offensive – according to documents from the most recent data leak in the US, mainly due to deficits in the air defense system. How serious do you think these shortcomings are?

Longing: The leaked documents are apparently from the beginning of March, the status shown there is from February. So this is not the latest. About the shortcomings of air defense, we already knew before. Ukraine has already received some air defense systems, but the new ones are only arriving gradually – so it takes a while before they are operational.

And above all, there is a lack of ammunition for these air defense systems. Better solutions must also be found so that cheap drones, which the Russians use en masse, are not shot down with expensive guided missiles. At the same time, ammunition production must be increased – in Germany and at Ukraine’s partners as a whole. My impression is that Ukraine’s European partners in particular are too slow here.

“Putin is aiming to continue the war aimlessly”

tagesschau.de: If we are already experiencing the maximum of what the Russians can do militarily, is Putin then primarily relying on the time factor?

Longing: Militarily, Putin is too weak to achieve anything in Ukraine. That’s why he’s now hoping to just continue this war aimlessly, so that political opportunities might open up for him over time. He is counting on domestic political conflicts playing a greater role again in Ukraine. He hopes for growing disunity in the West, possibly also conflicts in the transatlantic relationship.

It is part of Putin’s strategy that the West ultimately pushes Ukraine harder to make compromises or concessions. That is why it is so important to clearly rely on military support for Ukraine and to give it the military means not only to put itself in a better position, but also to liberate its own people who are under Russian occupation and oppression.

Ukrainians do not want to make concessions, because then they would have to leave their relatives and compatriots in Russian oppression. For us, this means that we must not only organize military support for Ukraine sporadically, but systematically and over the long term – and expand it further. This is the best way to come to peace.

“Take Macron at his word”

tagesschau.de: What role does the disagreement between Europeans about their security and defense policy and their relationship with the USA, which has only just become clear through statements by French President Emmanuel Macron, play here for Russia?

Longing: Putin will view with keen interest any conflicts or tensions in the transatlantic relationship or between the partners currently supporting Ukraine. He will consider how to capitalize on this and fuel divisions.

As for Macron, you have to take anyone who wants to operate on an equal footing with the Americans at their word. For France and the EU states, this means providing as much or even more military support for Ukraine than the USA. The Europeans must do more to secure NATO’s eastern flank, which is also the EU’s external border, for example by stationing troops permanently. It doesn’t go together to talk about European independence, but then not to do what is necessary in terms of security and defense.

“It’s not enough to conjure up more commitment in the abstract”

tagesschau.de: France’s military aid to Ukraine lags well behind that of other countries.

Longing: France is doing too little. The question of what the industrially stronger nations in Europe are doing is crucial to Ukraine’s continued military support. And those are Germany and France, but also Italy and Spain.

In my view, these countries must do more, especially if they want to act on an equal footing with the Americans. Incidentally, this also applies to those who warn of a possible return of Trump to the office of US President. It is not enough to swear in abstract terms that the Europeans must do more; concrete decisions must now be taken to counteract the risks to European security with more European resources of our own.

The conversation was led by Eckart Aretz, tagesschau.de