After the fall of Avdiivka, there is no rest for the Ukrainian armed forces; Putin’s troops are attacking on the entire front. They want to take advantage of the Ukrainians’ exhaustion and break their will to resist.
“Drive them to Berlin,” were the words with which an old man greeted the Russian soldiers in Avdiivka. He endured in the rubble of the city.
Putin won’t make it to Berlin, but after the fall of the city, which had been fought over for months, the Russians want to use their momentum and are pressing on the Ukrainian positions in many places along the entire front. The Ukrainians are still holding out bravely, Russian progress is limited – as always in this war. But how long will the Ukrainian positions last?
The initiative lies with Russia
For months, Putin has taken the initiative at the front. Ukraine has had success with drone attacks on ships and refineries, but on the ground Kiev’s troops are being pushed onto the defensive. Now there is another psychological factor: Contrary to what the Kiev high command claimed, Avdiivka was not evacuated according to plan, it was a chaotic escape. There are videos of the corpses in the fields, as well as the voices of prisoners who were unable to save themselves.
The strongest impact in Ukraine was made by the desperate calls from the “300s” – the Soviet abbreviation for the wounded – who had been left behind by their own people and who suffered for days in a basement without supplies or water and could only hope that the Russians would come by at some point and wouldn’t throw a grenade into the basement first.
The New York Times speaks of hundreds who were left behind in the chaotic withdrawal. The Russian forces are regrouping in Avdiivka itself. They will probably try to drive the Ukrainians out of the villages west of the city in the next few weeks. Before that, they will clear the rubble of the city of mines and booby traps.
Fight on the whole front
Further to the south there was already heavy fighting around Robotyne, one of the few places that Kiev was able to conquer in the summer and is still holding. The Ukrainian defenders are fighting doggedly. But the Russians are advancing in the surrounding area and have at least reached the outskirts of the town. Near Bakhmut the Russians attack the town of Ivanivske. Southwest of Avdiivka they are trying to encircle the town of Pervomaiske. In the Donetsk area they attacked Kostyantynivka and Novomykhailivka, and here they managed to capture the small town of Pobyeda. In the north they press on the entire front between Kupyansk and Lyman. This is unanimously reported by Ukrainian bloggers, Russian accounts such as Rybar and the Institute for the Study of War.
What does that mean? The battle for Avdiivka did not deplete Russian reserves. Their strength is currently sufficient to take offensive action in a dozen places. Kiev cannot really give up any of these sections. Putin’s calculation is based on the fact that at some point Kiev will have to use all its reserves to hold the front. Another calculation: Kiev is running out of artillery shells, and the shortage is becoming even more noticeable due to the many phases of fighting.
The biggest bright spot for Ukraine at the moment is the news that it has managed to shoot down several Russian jets far behind the front. How this could have happened is unclear. If the report is true, these losses could force Russia to limit its massive use of glide bombs.
Russia is getting stronger
But all in all the situation is threatening. Because Russia is getting stronger, Ukraine is getting weaker. Moscow claims that over 50,000 volunteers signed up for military service in less than two months in 2024. The influx of around 60,000 men in two months can be converted into 10 new brigades. In the last 14 months there are said to have been 600,000 men. There are 400,000 to 500,000 men facing each other at the front.
However, the Russian surplus in personnel means that the Russians can have their troops replaced (rotated). The Ukrainians can’t do that, so their soldiers are worn out and exhausted. During the battle for Avdiivka, it was not apparent that the Russians were running out of equipment despite heavy losses. While videos went around the world in 2022 showing those drafted with broken weapons and inadequate equipment, there is no trace of it anymore. Russia continues to increase its arms production. Analyst Patricia Marins fears that the current bottleneck in artillery gun barrels will be resolved in the spring by expanding the factory in Motoviilikha.
West not prepared for a long war
Kiev is now paying for blatant misjudgments by the West. When it came to the question of sanctions, the country’s own importance in a global world was vastly overestimated. And then Ukraine was allowed to slide into a war of attrition without ramping up its own arms production for a long-lasting war. At the same time, it was assumed that the “developing country” Russia could produce less rather than more military equipment.Now the consequences are becoming apparent: the Russians are increasing their troops and material, and Kiev cannot keep up.
The West will hardly be able to solve the dilemma. In principle, the industry is stronger, but the skyrocketing prices for armaments mean that there is less and less firepower for the euro. The price of artillery shells has risen from $2,000 to $6,000, meaning that instead of three shells there is only one. The weapons of the West do not rely on off-the-shelf products; they are complex to produce and very, very expensive. One example is the Caracal all-wheel drive vehicle, which is based on the G-Class. Costs a whopping 600,000 euros per piece. The real operational value is unlikely to be higher than that of a militarized pickup truck for a sixth of the price. Not only because of the USA, but mainly because of the USA, less aid is flowing to Kiev. There is not just a lack of armaments, there is simply a lack of money. Without euros or dollars from abroad, Kiev cannot finance war and defense.
Even in the next two or three months, Russia will not be able to defeat Ukraine. However, it is likely that the Ukrainian troops will be pushed back further. In Donbass towards the last line of defense. The crucial question will then be whether the population and the troops see the point in continuing the war. Or whether Putin will succeed in exhausting Ukrainians’ morale with his war of attrition.