Moscow now has NATO’s rejection in writing
Kremlin only wants to talk to the US and NATO
In the Ukraine crisis, Germany wants to rely on diplomacy. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov makes it clear that talks should only be with the USA and NATO, without the EU and without the OSCE.
NATO and the US officially reject the “security guarantees” demanded by Russia. The alliance cannot and does not want to withdraw from the eastern member states. Vladimir Putin will not like that. NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg is already talking indirectly about the alliance.
Dhe press conference scheduled at short notice by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg began half an hour later. The mood was somber, Stoltenberg seemed extremely tense. He announces what the 30 NATO countries had decided that morning: the alliance replied in writing to Moscow’s demands for “security guarantees” on Wednesday and made no major concessions.
At the same time, as requested by the Kremlin, Washington also handed over a response to Moscow’s specific demands to the Americans. Neither the United States nor NATO disclosed the exact content of the letter. However, Stoltenberg’s statements allow sufficient conclusions.
Now Moscow has it in writing: NATO remains firm and is not willing to fundamentally reject the inclusion of countries like Georgia and Ukraine in the alliance. And: The alliance does not want to withdraw from the eastern alliance states. From NATO’s point of view, this would jeopardize the entire deterrent against Moscow on the alliance’s eastern border – and thus also the security of numerous member countries. On the other hand, the alliance is willing to talk about issues such as disarmament control, more transparency in military activities and the development of better communication channels.
The risk of war has increased significantly
Now NATO is waiting impatiently for the answer from Moscow. “We read. To study. The partners of our project studied our project for almost a month and a half,” said Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko. There was high tension in the corridors of the alliance on Wednesday evening, many offices were still lit. Because it is completely open whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will use the rejection of his key demands as an excuse to attack parts of Ukraine or whether there will be further talks at the diplomatic level. One thing is clear: the danger of a war in the middle of Europe has increased significantly since Wednesday evening.
Stoltenberg didn’t want to say that so clearly. He avoided a clear statement. But what he said was sufficiently alarming: “There is no de-escalation, on the contrary”. Shortly before that, around 7.50 p.m. on Wednesday evening, he also analyzed: “The tensions are rising. The military growth of Russia continues. We are now also seeing thousands of soldiers in Belarus, Air Force and S-400 medium-range missiles.” This development makes it all the more urgent to stay in touch. “A political solution is still possible,” emphasized the former Norwegian head of government.
Stoltenberg again offered Moscow a “series of meetings” within the framework of the NATO-Russia Council. “We also want to listen to Russian concerns. Both sides can benefit from that.” But will Putin still get involved? Stoltenberg: “It’s about being willing to sit together in good faith. We want to take the path of dialogue and seek a political compromise. But we are also prepared for the worst.”
Stoltenberg speaks indirectly about the alliance case
Then came a pivotal moment in that press conference. It is unclear whether Stoltenberg just wanted to warn off in general at this moment or whether he has concrete and verifiable fears. In any case, the NATO chief said: “We have plans that we can activate the ‘NATO Response Force’ (NRF) in a very short time.” are under French command and can be in the combat area within a few days. “Follow-up troops could also be added very quickly,” says Stoltenberg.
The interesting thing about these statements is that the NRF only intervenes when a NATO country is attacked. That would not be the case with Ukraine. Does NATO also anticipate a possible attack or destabilization in the Baltic States or in Poland? That would exacerbate the entire situation, because then NATO would be obliged under Article 5 to provide military assistance to the alliance countries concerned.
“We are ready to take all necessary measures to protect our allies,” Stoltenberg said. There are currently around 4,000 NATO soldiers in the three Baltic states and Poland as part of the Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP) program. In Lithuania, Germany leads the permanently rotating combat troops. They are supported by tanks, anti-aircraft and reconnaissance units. The NATO soldiers are a thorn in Putin’s side. He wants them to go.
Belgian F-16 fighter jets are already operating as part of a NATO mission in Lithuania. Denmark also wants to relocate F-16 jets to the Baltic States
Source: AP
Stoltenberg spent an unusually long time on military details that evening. He praised Washington’s having put 8,400 troops on high alert. Paris also offered to send soldiers to Romania. Denmark wants to send a frigate to the Baltic Sea and four F-16 bombers to Lithuania. Spain is providing ships for the NATO naval forces and is considering sending fighter jets to Bulgaria. The alliance is increasing its presence in the Black Sea and has been conducting reconnaissance flights in the region for weeks in order to be able to better assess Russian troop movements. All of this is intended to prevent Moscow from attacking Ukraine or a NATO country.
Internally, NATO military planners estimate that Russia will need around 200,000 men to launch an invasion of Ukraine. It is said that such growth would take another one to two weeks. However, according to NATO analyses, Russia is already able to take individual areas of Ukraine, such as the strategically important coastal strip from Mariupol to Crimea, at lightning speed. The Ukrainian military would probably be eliminated by the Russian special forces in a very short time. Such an attack would equate to what Putin vaguely called a “military-technical” response at a December press conference.
At the end of his memorable press conference, Stoltenberg once again explained why NATO would remain firm on important issues: “We will not make any compromises when it comes to our basic principles.” This means that every country can decide for itself which security alliance it wants to belong to . This was a clear commitment to the Alliance’s open-door policy. “That deserves respect for the self-determination of an independent country,” said Stoltenberg. The drama of these hours is that Putin could see a reason for war in the NATO chief’s statements.