Turkish President Erdogan has again questioned Sweden’s approval of NATO membership. Many expected an end to the blockade. Apparently he is speculating on a complete package – including US fighter jets.
The sign could not have been clearer. In Ankara, the Turkish President’s new chief foreign policy adviser, Akif Cagatay Kilic, is meeting with delegations from Brussels, Helsinki and Stockholm to negotiate Sweden’s accession. However, the important statements are made by Recep Tayyip Erdogan – still in the air on the way back from Azerbaijan.
The Turkish news agency Anadolu quoted him as saying: “Where is NATO’s counter-terrorism pillar? NATO needs to get this straight once and for all. If we don’t get this straightened out, we can’t stand in Vilnius and say ‘all right’. .”
Anti-Swedish position puzzled
The next NATO summit is in Vilnius, Lithuania, in less than a month, and actually Sweden should also be allowed to join NATO. Many had expected Turkey and Hungary to stop blocking, including the director of the Institute for European Politics, Funda Tekin.
“Personally, I’m also surprised that he sticks so strongly to his anti-Swedish position, so to speak. Because I think that everything was set in such a way that he could have given in now,” says she.
Tekin addresses the domestic political factors: Erdogan won the election in May, so he could now govern in a much more relaxed manner. The “national-political argument” to present strength with his attitude towards Sweden is now losing importance, according to Tekin. “That means he should actually get out of election campaign mode a bit.”
Stoltenberg’s visit fizzles out
But he is far from that. His balcony speech on election night after the victory shows that. Erdogan stays on the attack. The visit by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to be sworn in will not change that. In his current statement, Erdogan brushes aside what was actually intended as a strong signal from Stoltenberg and NATO.
“We told him that if you want us to live up to expectations, then first of all Sweden must take action against the activities of this terrorist organization,” he said. While Stoltenberg had promised them this, terrorists were demonstrating on the streets of Sweden at exactly the same time.
Expert Tekin sees concessions
Erdogan is primarily concerned with the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party PKK. In Sweden, a new anti-terror law came into force at the beginning of the month.
“This is really far-reaching by Swedish standards. That means you can really say it’s a concession to Erdogan or a concession,” says Tekin. The Swedish courts have also begun to examine and arrange for expulsions.
Ankara is said to have submitted a list of 130 names in Finland and Sweden some time ago: According to the Turkish media, these are mainly alleged terrorists who they want extradited.
Is Erdogan going for more F16 jets?
Brussels had hoped the steps would meet Turkey’s terms from the NATO summit in Madrid a year ago. But all this is not enough for Erdogan. His yes to Sweden’s accession comes at a price. And it seems higher.
Expert Tekin addresses the F16 fighter jets from US production: “He will probably speculate on getting the F16 in order to really get the entire package.” She can’t imagine that it’s just a matter of who is demonstrating in Sweden and who isn’t.
US President Joe Biden congratulated Erdogan on his election victory and apparently linked Sweden’s NATO accession to the F16 – contrary to the official terminology. The US Congress does not want to deliver the fighter jets because Turkey had bought a Russian missile defense system.
Image as a complicated partner
“Now it would actually be an opportunity for Erdogan to allay these concerns about Turkey as a very difficult NATO partner and to show concessions on his part and ultimately to assess the Swedish question more positively,” says Tekin.
Erdogan apparently wants the F16 on his doorstep before he says yes to Sweden. This is likely to shatter the hopes of the EU and the West for better relations for the time being. The Turkish president seems to be continuing to cultivate his image as a complicated partner.