At first glance, it is very good news for the climate: seven out of ten people in Germany are willing to change their personal mobility behavior in order to save CO₂ emissions. This is shown by the latest “Digital Auto Report” by PwC’s strategy consultants, the Süddeutsche Zeitung is present. 1000 people of all income groups were surveyed – as well as many more in other European countries, in the USA and in China, with very different results, by the way. In China, for example, almost all respondents (97 percent) want to personally contribute to CO₂ reduction, in the USA, however, only one in two.
In any case, Germany is at the forefront, at least when it comes to claims. Almost half of those surveyed by PwC want to cover shorter distances more often on foot or by bike, while a quarter are planning to do without short-haul flights completely. This is in line with the latest findings from the Federal Environment Agency, according to which, for every second German, careful behavior has the highest priority in the traffic of the future.
But what are these good intentions worth? Maybe not that much if you look at other answers from the PwC survey. Because one of the most important alternatives to the 48 million cars in Germany, public transport, is finding it extremely difficult: only seven percent of Germans want to increasingly switch to public transport even after the corona pandemic. 53 percent want to use buses and trains less or do not use them at all anyway.
Interest in electric cars is growing, but the majority would still decide against it
In contrast, the number of Germans who want to buy a new car in the next two years has doubled compared to the previous year. One in four even wants to drive more, but still few want to drive an e-car (18 percent). Nevertheless, the trend is clear: acceptance for e-mobility is growing, also because battery vehicles already have an advantage in terms of overall costs. But even more e-cars will not solve the space and traffic problems in cities. The reluctance to switch to buses and trains has to do with the “status quo”, says Jonas Seyfferth, author of the Digital Auto Report and mobility expert at PwC. The biggest obstacle to using local public transport, but also bike or car sharing, is above all too high prices with insufficient availability.
Making buses and trains attractive would cost the state a lot of money
Torben Greve, Managing Director of the Mobility Institute Berlin (MIB), points out another crucial point: time. Using extensive data analyzes, he and his team have calculated the previous “travel time disadvantage” in eleven major German cities: Everywhere, public transport users are so much at a disadvantage compared to motorists that major interventions are required, according to the scientist. Sometimes buses and trains are just as fast, but only if the start and destination are ideally located and a rail vehicle connects them. On average, however, city dwellers need twice as long to travel by bus and train compared to driving by car; if you are unlucky, you need three times as long. Studies have shown that most people accept a time disadvantage compared to the car of 30 percent, and 50 percent is still okay for many because they often have to look for a parking space.
“But if it takes even longer, then almost only those who have no choice stay in the public area,” says Greve. The big time disadvantage is not so much the stops at the bus stops, according to the MIB researchers, but the meandering paths, especially with buses, and the waiting at transfer points. One of the examples between Berlin-Pankow and Reinickendorf is only two kilometers. But with the public you have to cover eight kilometers. In order to be able to cover the distance faster, smaller solutions that can be implemented at short notice are sometimes sufficient: for example, cross-connections by express buses that move forward with the green wave. Other things, for example more rail routes and a five-minute cycle planned in Hamburg, for example, which makes checking the timetable superfluous, cost billions of euros and take time. “More performance also means more grants, no question about it,” says Greve. But that is a question of the political status in the country as well as the benefit for society and the climate.
This is of course known to the providers, these days the Federal Association of Public Transport (VDV) is presenting a concept that shows very specifically how public transport should become more attractive – and what that costs. The traffic performance is expected to increase by almost a quarter compared to 2018 by 2030, which should bring a third more passengers. U-Bahns, S-Bahns and trams should bring 36 percent more performance. And the bus offers should even increase by 107 percent, calculated in vehicle kilometers, according to the report, for which the management consultancy Roland Berger has also calculated and which the SZ has. In the more sparsely populated area in particular, a number of transport associations want to replace large buses with small vehicles that hold half a dozen seats and come to passengers by phone or app. In the densely populated centers, on the other hand, the trend is towards even larger vehicles. The association calls the project ambitious, but feasible. If the financing works: So far, the tickets cover around two thirds of the German public transport costs (25.5 billion euros), the rest is provided by the state, 120 euros per inhabitant and year. With ticket prices remaining more or less the same, the financing requirement by the state will increase to 296 euros in 2030.
In return, according to the VDV, people in Germany would get more connections – and faster too. Buses, for example, are expected to be five percent faster on average in 2030. However, they also find that at the VDV, there is also a need for cost pressure: Only if the use of one’s own car becomes noticeably more expensive – we are talking about 50 percent higher parking fees – would mobility behavior change as hoped.