When letters are counted in Westminster, something is wrong. Counting letters has been an almost obsessive activity in the British ruling Conservative party in recent years, although strictly speaking there is only one officially approved letter counter: Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, the MPs who have no government positions. According to the party statutes, the Tories can register their distrust of the current party leader – who has also been Prime Minister for 13 years – in writing with Brady. If 15 percent of MPs write a letter to Brady, a vote of no confidence will automatically be triggered; according to current calculations, that is 53.
Counting letters from the Tories (or speculating about them) is part of the folklore of British politics; in a party with 350 MPs there are always a few who don’t like the boss. But if speculation increases, it is usually a warning for the boss; a few grumblings can quickly become many opponents. That’s how it was with Theresa May, that’s how it was with Boris Johnson and of course with Liz Truss. Rishi Sunak has been in office for just over a year now, and now he too is starting to hear whispers and speculation about letters in Westminster. The number, isn’t it double digits again?
The government classifies Rwanda as “safe” – without restrictions
Robert Jenrick, the Secretary of State for Migration at the Home Office, resigned on Wednesday evening because he disagreed with Sunak’s “Rwanda Bill”. The law is a response to the Supreme Court’s decision against the British government’s plan to fly so-called illegal refugees to Rwanda. It was published on Wednesday and will be voted on in the House of Commons next Tuesday. It is “the strictest migration law this country has ever had,” Sunak said in a hastily called press conference on Thursday.
The law is intended to address all the Supreme Court’s concerns and he has no doubts that the Rwanda project will be declared legal this time. And if not? Sunak said he didn’t want to be told by any foreign court what Parliament could do; he was referring to the European Court of Human Rights, which had intervened. “The British Parliament is sovereign, it should be able to make decisions that will not be reversed by the courts,” Sunak said in the press conference.
However, it is uncertain whether the law will actually make it through the House of Commons. Among other things, it unconditionally declares Rwanda to be “safe”, regardless of how British and European courts assess the situation in Rwanda. The law is also intended to ensure that British courts ignore international law. Sunak is opposed to withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), but the new law would come close to doing so. In doing so, Sunak is creating the biggest possible dispute in his party: the law goes too far for the more moderate Tories, especially since complicated and lengthy legal disputes are to be expected. The law does not go far enough for the right-wing Tories.
Suella Braverman warns of a fiasco in the elections
The law was “a victory of hope over experience,” Jenrick wrote in his resignation letter. But the country cannot afford that; they have to take more decisive action. Suella Braverman, the home secretary and ultra-right hardliner recently sacked by Sunak, said on BBC radio on Thursday: “The law will not work.” But the migration issue will be crucial as to whether the Tories win the next election.
If the government is unable to implement the “Stop the Boats” slogan, “then we risk sinking into oblivion on election day,” Braverman warned in the House of Commons. According to a current Yougov survey, 20 percent of Brits consider the migration issue to be the most important issue of all, after the economic situation (34 percent) but before health (13 percent). The answer to the question of how the government deals with the issue of migration was clear: “bad,” said 84 percent.
On Wednesday evening, Sunak spoke to the members of the 1922 Committee in a room in Parliament, he is said to have literally implored them. “Unite or die,” Sunak is said to have shouted to his MPs: stick together or die.