LIVE – War in Ukraine: Europeans pessimistic about kyiv’s chances of victory

EU member states have approved the renewal, from June, of the exemption from customs duties for Ukrainian agricultural imports, accompanied by reinforced “safeguard mechanisms” to limit their impact, at the heart of recent protests. farmers.

The text proposed by Brussels and validated by the ambassadors of the Twenty-Seven provides for rapid “corrective measures” in the event of “significant disruptions” on the market. For three products (poultry, eggs, sugar), an “emergency brake” stabilizing imports at average volumes imported in 2022-2023, beyond which customs duties would be reimposed. MEPs must now decide on this.

Swedish intelligence services (Säpo) have warned of the territorial threat posed by Russian espionage, particularly in the Arctic. Russia, like China, “carries out activities that threaten security in the far north of Sweden,” writes Säpo in its annual threat assessment report.

“Russia’s interest in northern Sweden mainly concerns Swedish military capabilities,” continues Säpo, as Sweden’s probable entry into NATO approaches. The country, like Finland, ended two centuries of non-alignment by applying to join NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This accession should materialize next Monday, during the vote of the Hungarian parliament, the final obstacle.

The Russian website Mediazona and the BBC’s Russian service said they had identified around 45,000 Russian soldiers killed since the start of the invasion of Ukraine two years ago in a joint investigation published today. This count was given while in Russia as in Ukraine, military losses are kept secret.

The count runs from February 24, 2022 to February 20, 2024. It is not intended to be exhaustive, but the two media say they have identified 45,123 Russian soldiers killed by exploiting freely accessible sources such as death notices, press releases from local authorities , obituaries published in the media or on social networks. The media emphasize that the real toll is certainly much heavier. It could be twice as high, suggests the BBC Russian service.

For several weeks, Polish farmers have been mobilizing at the Ukrainian border, complaining of unfair competition with agricultural production coming from Ukraine. Faced with this situation, President Volodymyr Zelensky called for talks between the Polish and Ukrainian governments to unblock the border.

“I asked our government to go to the border between our two countries as soon as possible, by February 24,” he said in a video, asking Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk to do so. even. “Only Moscow is delighted” by these tensions between the two allied countries, he denounced.

The European Commission should present at the “early summer”, after the European elections in June, the “negotiation framework” for Ukraine’s accession to the EU, announced the president of the institution, Ursula von der Leyen.

At a summit in mid-December, the leaders of the Twenty-Seven agreed on the opening of accession negotiations with Ukraine, tasking the Commission with presenting them with a “negotiation framework” after having examined the situation in the country and the measures already adopted by kyiv. A first deadline had been indicated earlier, but ultimately, Ursula von der Leyen postponed the presentation of the “negotiations framework”.

The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen pleaded in Brussels for the appointment of a Defense Commissioner whose central role would be to promote “the industrial base” of the Twenty-Seven in this sector. “European citizens want more Europe in Defense. They want us to invest more, to invest better,” said the German official, a few days before the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“The way I see a Commissioner for Defense and Security is that he or she would be responsible for the industrial base in terms of defense, which is a central competence of the Commission”, underlined Ursula von der Leyen, candidate to a new five-year term. Asked about the personalities likely to take this position of commissioner, she judged that it was “too early” to discuss it.

European citizens are pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances of winning the war against Russia, and see a negotiated settlement between the two countries as the most likely outcome, according to a poll of twelve EU countries, published on Wednesday.

According to this survey conducted in January for the think tank European Council on International Relations (ECFR), only 10% of those questioned predict a victory for Ukraine on the ground.

Some 20% anticipate that of Russia, while 37% believe that the war will end in a form of “compromise” between the two countries. The most optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of victory are Poland, Sweden and Portugal, the most pessimistic are Greece, Hungary and Italy.

The national secretary of the PCF Fabien Roussel pleaded Wednesday for a status of neutrality for Ukraine, demanded by Moscow, rather than its entry into the European Union and NATO, and called on Europeans to build “collective security”.

“Everything must be done to prevent this warlike escalation,” insisted the communist boss, as the war in Ukraine enters its third year at the end of the week. To do this, “we cannot grant Ukraine’s request to join the European Union and NATO. This is not possible,” he said.

France and the European Union “are right to help a country which is invaded”, underlined Fabien Roussel while London, Berlin and Paris signed bilateral security agreements with kyiv a few days ago.

The ambassadors of EU countries agreed on Wednesday on a new package of sanctions against Russia, a few days before the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, announced the Belgian presidency of the Council of the EU.

A draft text, seen by AFP, planned in particular to limit the trade of EU companies with three mainland Chinese companies having supplied the Russian army, and to blacklist the Minister of Defense North Korean for sending missiles to Moscow.

The Ukrainian army denied on Wednesday having lost control of its Krynky bridgehead on the occupied bank of the Dnieper, in southern Ukraine, and which Russian President Vladimir Putin himself had claimed the capture the day before.

“The military and political leadership of the aggressor country announced the capture of the bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River. We officially say that this information is false,” the Southern Command of the Ukrainian forces said on social networks.

The Italian presidency of the G7 announced on Tuesday a meeting by videoconference of its leaders on Saturday devoted to Ukraine, which should decide on a tightening of sanctions against Russia.

This meeting, in which President Volodymyr Zelensky will participate, is the first of the heads of state and government of the G7 member countries (United States, Japan, Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy, Canada) under Italian presidency. At the end of the meeting, which should last an hour and a half during the afternoon, a joint declaration on Ukraine should be adopted, according to Italian diplomatic sources.

The participants should decide on “a toughening of the sanctions regime”, according to the same sources. “The EU will launch a new package of sanctions and the United States will also approve a tightening of its sanctions.”

Here are the main events of the last 24 hours:

• Russia claimed Tuesday the recapture of the village of Krynky, on the occupied bank of the Dnieper, in southern Ukraine. “Krynky has been cleaned, we de facto control the entire bank,” assured Sergei Shoigu in response to a question from the Russian president during a meeting between the two men. Ukrainian forces had been trying for months to gain ground on the left bank of the Dnieper in the Kherson region.

• The Ukrainian army headquarters noted on Tuesday no less than 84 Russian attacks in the last 24 hours, all of which were “repulsed”, he assured. If Russian operations were significantly reduced around Avdiïvka itself, numerous assaults took place near Mariïnka (east), near Bakhmout (east) and in the Zaporizhia region (south). “The situation is extremely difficult at several points on the front line,” Mr. Zelensky admitted Monday evening. Russian troops are “taking advantage of the delay in aid to Ukraine,” he said, as the country is deprived of crucial US military aid of $60 billion, currently blocked in Congress.

• The Russians are still bombing places beyond the front on an almost daily basis. A mother, her two children and their grandmother as well as another woman were killed in the explosion on their house of a Russian Lancet attack drone, in the Sumy region (north-east), according to the Ukrainian army. Finally, anti-aircraft defense destroyed 23 Shahed explosive drones of Iranian design, launched during the night from Monday to Tuesday by Russia on different regions of Ukraine.

• The two French humanitarian workers killed in early February in southeastern Ukraine were victims of a “deliberate attack” carried out by drones, the Swiss NGO for which they worked said on Tuesday. The team of six collaborators from Swiss Protestant Entraide (Eper, Heks in German) was attacked while on a mission to assess the humanitarian situation in the region surrounding the town of Beryslav, on the north bank of the Dnieper River. , near the front line.

Hello and welcome to this live broadcast dedicated to events in Ukraine.