A mysterious cancellation restarted the speculation machine. The back-to-school Council of Ministers, scheduled for this Wednesday, was postponed until next week by the Elysée, without justification. A last minute change which brought back rumors of a reshuffle, which had already been anticipated for several months. Especially since Emmanuel Macron “particularly” thanked Élisabeth Borne during his presidential greetings on Sunday evening. A tribute as a farewell?
With his promise to make 2024 a “year of determination”, the head of state could be tempted to change Prime Minister. 20 minutes takes stock of the possible avenues in such a hypothesis.
Bruno Le Maire, the boss
The argument for: Her name is regularly mentioned when it comes to replacing Elisabeth Borne. The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, has been in office at Bercy since the election of Emmanuel Macron… in 2017. A longevity which makes him one of the heavyweights of Macronie. The ex-diplomat also has solid ministerial experience, having been Minister of Agriculture and Secretary of State for European Affairs under Nicolas Sarkozy.
He enjoys good popularity with the French, and has the advantage of coming from the right without being hated by his former Republican colleagues. Not trivial when it will be necessary to count on LR votes to find a majority.
The limit : BLM no longer really hides its ambitions, which sometimes irritates Elisabeth Borne. “He’s eyeing Matignon,” smiles a Macronist who meets him regularly. And even in 2027? An attitude that could annoy the president.
Gérald Darmanin, the politician
The argument for: The Minister of the Interior ticks more or less the same boxes as his counterpart at Bercy. Influential, experienced, from the right… A very political profile would therefore not be negligible for fighting in Parliament and leading the delicate European campaign in June. Especially since Gérald Darmanin led a major media offensive last summer, not hesitating to half-heartedly criticize Elisabeth Borne. “He simply said ‘be careful with techno language’, because he embodies a social and popular fiber,” assures a nearby MP. “He is one of those who move. It’s good to shake up the coconut tree a little,” adds another elected official. Enough to sketch, hollowly, an anti-Borne profile for Matignon.
The limit : He lost a lot (too many?) of his feathers on the immigration bill, previously rejected by the Assembly, then finally adopted by fracturing its majority.
Christine Lagarde, the expert
The argument for: Pushed by Nicolas Sarkozy, Christine Lagarde would have already been surveyed last summer for Matignon. The former Minister of the Economy has been at the head of the European Central Bank since 2019, after having been director of the International Monetary Fund in Washington for eight years. International credibility on economic issues, a strong attachment to the European Union, and this side “ fluent in english » which make her a serious candidate to please Emmanuel Macron.
The limit : His “techno” and “globalized elite” profile could revive these eternal criticisms against Emmanuel Macron.
Sébastien Lecornu, the outsider
The argument for: Rather discreet, Sébastien Lecornu has become an outsider for Matignon in recent days. Surprising? Not really, because the Minister of the Armed Forces is often praised by the entire majority. The former elected LR (yet another) climbed the steps of Macronian power step by step: first Secretary of State to the Minister of Ecological Transition, then Minister of Territorial Communities, then Overseas. At 37, the initiator of the great national post-“yellow vest” debate is appreciated by Emmanuel Macron. Enough to uncheck Matignon?
The limit : Little known to the French, does Lecornu have enough political weight to lead Le Maire or Darmanin?
Gabriel Attal, the good student
The argument for: In recent months, he has continued to climb in opinion polls. Gabriel Attal is now ahead of Edouard Philippe in several polls as the French people’s favorite political figure. At 34, the Macronie handyman has already worked as spokesperson, the Youth Secretariat and Public Accounts. Since this summer, he has become the youngest Minister of National Education and saturates the news with high-profile issues, such as bullying at school or the ban on the abaya. If he joined Matignon, he would obtain a new record, that of the youngest Prime Minister, held by Laurent Fabius, head of government at 37 years old.
The limit : Barely installed in National Education, it is difficult to see Emmanuel Macron sending him to Matignon’s hell.
Elisabeth Borne, continuity
The argument for: We can no longer count the times we have announced its end at Matignon. Elisabeth Borne knew how to turn her back to stay in office, despite a pension reform massively contested in the streets and in Parliament, and an immigration text which caused her majority to implode. No matter, the head of government is currently in the Guyanese jungle with the armed forces. A way of showing that she remains on task despite the rumors.
The limit : Elisabeth Borne failed to find a majority in the National Assembly, an objective set by the President of the Republic. The “new course” promised by Emmanuel Macron could be achieved without her.
X, the chef’s surprise
The argument for: What if Emmanuel Macron once again pulled an unexpected name out of his hat? This is the strategy that the Head of State chose in July 2020 with the appointment of Jean Castex, then unknown to the general public. Simple mayor of Prades, in the Pyrénées-Orientales, the enarque had mainly made himself known through shadowy missions, notably the delicate question of deconfinement.
The limit : Good profiles are not legion. It is also not certain that the explosive political context pushes Emmanuel Macron to choose an even less political profile than Elisabeth Borne.