Julian Alaphilippe, the shadow of a doubt? “He remains the arch-favorite” of the Walloon Flèche according to Steve Chainel

If 2020 is missing from his list, it is only because of the world title of Montluçonnais, who had made the decision not to line up in Belgium to digest his exploit. On Wednesday, the rainbow jersey holder will once again step forward with the sign of“ultra-favorite”, as described by our consultant Steve Chainel, and can go back to a success of the record holder of the event, Alejandro Valverde (5).

“I think he is 100%”

But in what state of form will Julian Alaphilippe arrive this season in his favorite race? Admittedly, the French rider has had a few ups and downs, such as a fall caused by his own car on the Flèche Brabançonne, or even the fact of not taking part in the Amstel Gold Race, in particular due to a change in the calendar due to the first turn of the French presidential election. But Steve Chainel is formal: “I think he’s 100 percent.”

After a rather successful start to the season on the Tour de la Provence (2nd overall and green jersey), Julian Alaphilippe experienced complicated Strade Bianche (58th) and Tirreno-Adriatico (33rd). But the reigning double world champion was able to recover at the best of times, before starting the period of Belgian classics. As often, his Tour of the Basque Country, where he gleaned a stage and achieved two second places, did him the greatest good.

“It was very important for him to prepare for the Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège with the Tour of the Basque Country, explains the former runner. Every year, we say to ourselves that Julian may not be at the top and finally the Flèche wallonne remains his favorite race. But like last year, the competition will be fierce, even in the absence of certain big names.

The UAE armada, the French on the spot

“Julian’s main opponent will clearly be Benoît Cosnefroy, bets Steve Chainel. He has already finished 2nd in the Flèche Wallonne (in 2020), he is in huge confidence and he is not going to think too much about how to play with Julian, even if Julian remains the arch-favorite.” In terms of statistics in any case, the Frenchman from AG2R-Citroën benefits from a very positive dynamic. After his two second places in the Amstel Gold Race and the Flèche Brabançonne, Cosnefroy, like Warren Barguil (Arkea-Samsic), also mentioned, will have the fangs to attack the Mur de Huy (1.3 km at 9.6% ).

But the French will not be alone. For Movistar, Alejandro Valverde has not said his last word, while Team UAE Emirates has decided to line up the heavy artillery to afford a new Belgian classic, two seasons after the victory of Marc Hirschi, who will be present . On the other hand, the leadership of the formation of the Emirates will not be clearly defined, since Tadej Pogacar, double winner of the Tour de France, has decided to align himself with the event, before going to defend his crown on Liège-Bastogne- Cork.

Beware of a vengeful Pogacar…

Options named Pogacar, Hirschi but also Diego Ulissi, since the Italian, even if his last appearances are less flashy than those of the last winner of the Tour, had finished 3rd in the event in 2019. Tadej Pogacar will be animated by a feeling of revenge after his failed sprint in the Tour of Flanders, the last time he appeared in competition, more than two weeks ago.

Pressure on the Wolfpack

As (almost) always, the victory should be disputed in the ultimate difficulty of the course. A wall whose steepest slopes exceed 20%. “Julian Alaphilippe has that three-minute power-to-weight ratio that makes him the best puncher in the world, analyzes our consultant. He has this pretty incredible explosiveness and he’s been doing that for almost 15 years, when he started in cyclocross.”

In addition to the competition, a downside remains within the Quick-Step Alpha Vinyl formation. The “Wolfpack” is much less sharp this year in the classics than in previous seasons. No podium since that of Kasper Asgreen on the Strade Bianche, at the beginning of March, and a 6th place for the Dane, ten days ago, on the Amstel Gold Race. Poor record.

Evenepoel as co-leader on Sunday?

“There will be a lot of pressure and expectation on Julian and Remco Evenepoelinsists Steve Chainel. Alaphilippe is the favorite on the Flèche wallonne. Liège-Bastogne-Liège, on the other hand, may suit Evenepoel. I’m less worried about them than on Paris-Roubaix on Sunday, where, on the cobbles, they were below what we could have hoped for.”

After the Flèche wallonne, Alaphilippe will turn to his big goal for the start of the season: Liège-Bastogne-Liège, Sunday. If he has been chasing the Belgian Monument for several years, the tricolor runner “will win it one day“, is convinced our consultant: “This year or another”. Even if the form is there, the best springboard for hitting your target is obviously to win the Flèche.