As a good fan of boxing, Emmanuel Macron is preparing to enter the ring. The Head of State will indeed give a major speech on Europe on Thursday at the Sorbonne. One month before the European elections, the majority list carried by Valérie Hayer is still struggling to take off in the polls, far, very far from Jordan Bardella (RN).
But can the president’s entry into the campaign really promote the dynamics of Renaissance and its allies? Even within the Macronists, some fear a counterproductive strategy…
“The alert level has been reached”
Rather discreet at the start of the campaign, Emmanuel Macron will therefore come out of the woods in the coming days. The President of the Republic opted for a “Sorbonne II speech”, echoing the one delivered in 2017, shortly after his arrival at the Elysée. “It was a visionary speech, particularly on Defense issues, which have a particular resonance today with the war in Ukraine,” breathes Fabienne Keller, Renaissance MEP. “There is great expectation because Europe is in the DNA of Macronism. And on many subjects, digital technology, health or immigration, the president has been a driving force on the continent,” she adds.
For the Head of State, it will be a question of defending the achievements obtained in recent years and of charting perspectives. But this entry on the scene is not insignificant, while the majority is 10 to 15 points behind the National Rally list, according to the latest polls. The objective is to energize the campaign of the Macronists, who see the candidacy of Raphaël Glucksman (PS) falling on them. “The level of concern is rising very high, the alert level has been reached. The president must want to take back control like in 2019…”, worries a Renaissance MP. Five years ago, the president was heavily involved in the final stretch before the election. Her face even appeared on campaign posters in place of Nathalie Loiseau, the head of the list, then in great difficulty.
The doubts of the Macronists
But five years later, the context has changed. And even within the Macronists, we doubt the effectiveness of this same strategy. “At the time, he allowed us to save the furniture [22,42 % contre 23.34 % pour le RN], but the ripple effect is much less strong today. There is no longer this hype that followed 2017. There is still a very strong rejection of the president among the electorate,” sighs the elected official cited above. Nearly three-quarters of French people say they are unhappy with Emmanuel Macron’s actions since his re-election, according to an Ifop-Fudicial survey for Sud Radio published last Monday.
“I don’t believe in the ‘wow’ effect. I wish so, but I have no illusions. I know that he is tense, that he now has a complicated relationship with the French,” sighs another member of the majority. “It’s an election coming up at mid-term, and some could be tempted to sanction the president…”, also fears Erwan Balanant, MoDem MP.
The RN is just waiting for that
This is also the strategy chosen by the National Rally, which intends to make the European elections an “anti-Macron referendum”. “For us, it’s pretty good that he’s going,” smiles Gaëtan Dussausaye, spokesperson for the RN. “When you nominate an opponent, it’s easier to campaign when he shows up. If he stays out, you’re hitting a bit of a void,” adds this person close to Jordan Bardella.
Among Les Républicains too, we do not fear the impact of the entry into the campaign of the tenant of the Elysée with voters on the right and the center-right, always coveted by the Macronist camp. “We have already had too many speeches, only speeches, while actions do not follow,” says Othman Nasrou, LR campaign director. Given the state of the country, his words are discredited. The rise of the RN is also its record.” This is also the risk of an active campaign for the head of state in the coming weeks. In the event of an electoral debacle on June 9, the opposition will have no problem demanding political consequences on a national scale.