Interview with Selenskyj adviser: “Putin is already a political corpse”

Russia is not capable of a major offensive, said Advisor to the Ukrainian President Danilov ARD interview. And he assumes that Putin cannot rely on China’s support either.

By Vassili Golod, ARD Studio Kiev

Oleksiy Danilov has been Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine since October 2019. The fact that there is a chess board on the conference table in his office sounds like a cliché.

According to the rules of chess, the white pieces make the first move. But on Danilov’s board, a black pawn was first placed on f5. “This train is symbolic of the changed world order,” he says soberly. “There used to be clear rules, but everything has changed since February 24, 2022.”

Military wants more guns

Danilov is from the Luhansk region, which is almost entirely occupied by Russia. He analyzes current developments along the front line on a large monitor. He regularly exchanges information with generals via a secure line.

The supreme commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valeriy Zalushnyi, published a list in December. It says what kind of military equipment Ukraine needs. While the West has supplied many new weapons, they remain below the numbers that Zalushnyj considered necessary.

“These negotiations require that we capitulate”

“If you talk to the military, you will never hear the word ‘enough’ from them,” says Danilov. But he would also like more military technology in view of the planned counter-offensive. “As for the number of deliveries: Of course we would like to see them increase by two or three times.”

A focus on diplomacy is not an option for Danilov in the current situation. “These negotiations assume that we capitulate,” says the 60-year-old. Ukrainian civil society would not accept negotiations contrary to national interests.

Battle for Bachmut: “No general objected”

For months, the city of Bakhmut has symbolized Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression. The Ukraine has significantly weakened the Russian troops here and largely stopped the Russian advance. Despite high losses in their own ranks, Ukraine does not want to give up the city. The military and government would coordinate regularly on this issue.

In public there was talk of differences of opinion. “Not once did a single general object to the decisions on Bakhmut,” says Danilov firmly. “If we gave up one city after the other, one town after the other, we wouldn’t be here today, we would either be in exile or somewhere on the western border.” Ukraine cannot give up its country: “This is our country, we must defend it.”

“Russia will collapse”

The security policy advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gratefully acknowledges the fact that countries like Germany and France, after initial hesitation, are providing Ukraine with extensive military support. But the West, in his view, was still making a big mistake.

“He does not realize that Russia is beginning to disintegrate. Russia’s disintegration has already begun and Putin initiated it. He started the active part of disintegration on February 24, 2022. Russia will collapse,” said Danilov. The West must prepare for a time after current Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Pointed theses that discredit the enemy are part of his job profile in times of war. Mainly to keep morale high in their own country. Danilov is often quoted because he has mastered targeted verbal attacks. “Putin is already a played card, he is already a political corpse. When he becomes a physical corpse is only a short-lived question,” says Danilov.

Russia not strong enough to attack again

In general, Putin lives in an old paradigm. Influenced by Soviet films, he announces things that, according to Danilov, do not correspond to reality. “1,600 tanks – these are dreams,” says Danilov. “Maybe they’ll actually make it in five years, but certainly not in a year.” In addition, Russia is under sanctions pressure and will “feel it more and more every day”.

The Secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council does not currently expect further Russian offensives:

“China will not dare to supply Russia”

In order to continue, Russia is dependent on supporters like Iran. But the number of Russian allies in the world is manageable. China is not one of them, Danilow is convinced and uses the chess metaphor again.

“China doesn’t play chess. The vast majority of Chinese play Go, it’s a completely different game. The result of this game is conquering territory,” says Danilov. “I don’t think China will dare to supply weapons directly to Russia.”

Rather, the Russian President Putin would currently be clutching at straws. And above all trying to save themselves, while Chinese President Xi was already on the lookout for Putin’s successor during his visit to Moscow. “Xi has already done some casting. He took a very close look at Prime Minister Mishustin.” In his opinion, Mikhail Mishustin is one of the options for the successor.

Decision on counter-offensive at the “very last moment”

The Secretary of the Ukrainian Security Council stressed that the Commander-in-Chief’s staff would decide on the start of the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive at the very last moment.

“If someone thinks that we only have one option, then that’s not the reality. Even three options wouldn’t be much,” says Danilov.