Is the inflation crisis really “behind us” as Bruno Le Maire said? In December, inflation jumped slightly to 3.7% year-on-year, after 3.5% in November, due to the “acceleration” of energy and service prices, according to provisional data. published Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics (Insee).
Energy prices increased by 5.6% year-on-year in December (compared to 3.1% in November) and those of services by 3.1% (after 2.8%). The prices of energy, which represents less than a tenth of the household consumption basket, would however fall over one month, unlike those of services (around half of the basket).
Slowdown on the power side
The rise in food prices, which had been the main driver of inflation in 2023 with a peak of almost 16% in the spring, on the other hand continued to slow down, with an increase of 7.1% over one year in December (compared to 7.7% in November). But the prices of fresh products followed the opposite trend, increasing by 8.8% in December, after 6.6% in November.
Prices of manufactured products slowed to +1.4% in December year-on-year, after +1.9%. The harmonized consumer price index, allowing European comparisons, also increased in December, to 4.1% year-on-year, compared to 3.9% in November.
Encouraging forecasts
In its latest forecasts published in mid-December, INSEE expects inflation to be 4.9% on average annually in 2023 (after 5.2% in 2022), and 2.6% over one year next June. .
The Banque de France predicted that inflation would reach 5.7% on annual average in 2023 and fall to 2.5% in 2024, measured here according to the harmonized consumer price index (HICP).