According to experts, there will be significantly fewer workers available in the coming decades. Despite immigration, the German job market will shrink sharply, according to the Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research.
According to a forecast by experts, the number of people available on the German labor market will probably shrink from 45.7 million to 40.4 million by 2060. According to the projection of the Institute for Labor Market and Occupational Research (IAB), the labor force potential will decrease by 11.7 percent in this period.
Factors such as demographic change, birth rate, immigration and emigration were taken into account. “The results show that companies will have significantly fewer workers available in the coming decades,” said IAB economist Enzo Weber.
More women and older people in the labor market
The IAB had long ago predicted an imminent decline in the potential labor force by seven million people if no countermeasures were taken. The projection published today takes into account the countermeasures and numerous external factors such as economic and demographic developments abroad, but also the birth rate. The result remains sobering: the potential will therefore still drop by several million.
According to the study, the employment rates of women and older people will develop positively in the coming years. For German women under the age of 55, the experts assume that the rate will increase from 87 to 93 percent, and for foreign women from 67 to 77 percent. The calculations are also based on the assumption that the birth rate will increase from 1.5 to 1.7 children per woman. “If we want to avoid the shrinkage, we have to step up the countermeasures at least two more,” said Weber.
The IAB economist sees starting points for participation in the labor market, especially for foreign women and older people, in reducing unemployment and continuing to migrate. “Third countries are becoming increasingly important to the EU when it comes to labor migration. The hurdles must therefore be further removed, but at the same time more must be done to ensure that immigrants gain a foothold in the labor market and find long-term prospects in Germany,” says Weber.
Will greatly will shrink the population?
According to the study, immigration from EU countries such as Poland or Romania will decrease significantly with the efforts made so far. While an average of 900,000 people from EU countries came to Germany in the past ten years, in 2060 it will only be 600,000. In return, immigration from third countries will increase from 240,000 to 500,000. At the same time, however, the current emigration of 750,000 people will increase to one million.
According to the projection, only 72.6 million people will live in Germany in 2060, around ten million fewer than today. Above all, immigration from other EU countries is likely to fall sharply because living conditions there are improving and at the same time the demographic situation is sometimes even less favorable than in Germany.