Argentine democracy is experiencing its midlife crisis. Nearly 36 million Argentines are expected to go to the polls this Sunday to elect the next president, with the outgoing Alberto Fernandez not running. Its center-left coalition, in power since 2003 with a break from 2015 to 2019, dominated by the center-right, must face the reality of failure on the economic level. Tired of traditional parties and hard hit by inflation, Argentine voters could rely on a former rock star, the populist Javier Milei.
What economic state is Argentina in? How is Javier Milei surfing the crisis? Who are the other candidates? 20 minutes takes stock with Maricel Rodriguez Blanco, lecturer in sociology at the Catholic Institute of Paris.
What state is Argentina in?
“Argentina has been living in crisis for several years,” Maricel Rodriguez Blanco immediately poses. Latin America’s third largest economy, which can count on significant natural resources and notably numerous lithium mines, is unable to bring down spectacular inflation, which amounts to 138% over one year. Twelve million Argentines also live below the poverty line. “There are structural elements of a social and political order,” deciphers the sociologist, citing a period of “hyperinflation” in the 1980s and a “structural parallel market”.
This entire economic structure has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. And if “the level of internal production has been recovered”, part of the middle class is experiencing “difficulty reintegrating into the job market”. The value of the Argentine currency, the peso, is also a real subject, twenty years after the end of its indexation to the dollar. “Several dollars circulate informally, which devalues the peso and results in a devaluation of salaries,” regrets Maricel Rodriguez Blanco. Among the most affected categories, “the teaching profession is very disadvantaged”. And the delay is piling up. “The government has worked to develop the scientific sector, but it is not enough compared to neighboring countries,” warns the specialist in social and labor policies.
Who is Javier Milei and how is he profiting from the economic crisis?
The solution proposed by Javier Milei is simple, even simplistic: abandon the peso and “dollarize” the country. Economic consultant and “close to the military figures who were in power during the dictatorship”, Javier Milei, under his guise as an anti-system “new candidate”, is in fact “close to the right-wing Macrist milieu” (Mauricio Macri , former Argentine president), notes Maricel Rodriguez Blanco. The former rock star appeals especially “to the middle and working classes who have a fairly distant relationship with the State,” she analyzes.
This is also reflected in the proposals of the candidate who, with a chainsaw displayed in the middle of a meeting, announces that he wants to “destroy the Stock Exchange, the equivalent of the CNRS”, quotes the sociologist. The populist makes full use of this “rhetoric of changing everything” and “presents himself as a popular hero,” she further notes. And it works. Credited with 35% of voting intentions based on the trend of around thirty polls, he takes advantage of the temptation of Argentines to “prefer an unknown evil to the known evil”, explains the sociologist.
Who are the other candidates?
For Maricel Rodriguez Blanco, two candidates can emerge against Javier Milei, but their problem is above all “getting to the second round”. On the right, Patricia Bullrich has her “long political experience” on her side. Minister of Labor from 1999 to 2001, just before a serious economic crisis, then Minister of Security under Mauricio Macri, she has an “electoral base” on the right, but which could prove insufficient. The native of Buenos Aires is, however, “controversial because she was a Peronist activist under the dictatorship, then was in the socialist party,” points out the sociologist. Her different political allegiances and her “right-wing path” could discredit her. But the right-wing candidate “could function in support of Milei and negotiate a place in government”.
Javier Milei’s other main adversary is that of those in power. Sergio Massa is the current Minister of the Economy, and this is almost his main fault. “Part of society blames him for not having gotten the country out of the crisis,” while Latin America’s third-largest economy is suffering one of the worst inflations in the world. But “he still managed to embody a consensual position, he is an interesting candidate who has his chances,” believes Maricel Rodriguez Blanco.
Two other candidates, Myriam Bregman (radical left) and Juan Schiaretti (centrist coalition), are much further behind in the polls.