How Putin is securing his power before the presidential election in Russia

Disinformation from Russia often plays a role in foreign elections. According to experts, there is no campaign for the upcoming vote in our own country. This is mainly due to President Putin’s system.

Manipulated videos, AI-generated recordings, influencers following party lines: The Kremlin uses the entire range of possibilities to disinformation abroad – especially in connection with elections. In Russia itself, however, President Vladimir Putin apparently refrained from conducting targeted campaigns in the run-up to the election, which will take place from tomorrow to Sunday.

And there is one reason in particular, says Alena Epifanova, research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP): “Before we talk about disinformation, it makes sense to understand in which information space it all takes place.”

Since the Kremlin attaches great importance to greatly restricting the information space – for example through massive control of the Internet and blocking independent media – a targeted disinformation campaign for the election is simply not necessary, said Epifanova. “The election has been rigged from the start. It is therefore a sham election so that Putin remains in power.”

Social networks mostly blocked

In Russia, major social networks such as Instagram, Facebook and X are blocked, and there is also noisy Reporters Without Borders There has been virtually no media freedom since the large-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022. Even the population’s communication could be monitored by the Kremlin.

Alexander Libman, professor of political science with a focus on Eastern Europe and Russia at the Free University of Berlin, was also unable to identify any new narratives from the Kremlin, especially regarding the election. Rather, the already common perspectives of the past few years have been used in various variations. “This includes, on the one hand, the nationalist rhetoric that Russia is threatened by the West,” says Libman.

This narrative was served, among other things, by publishing the intercepted conversation of Bundeswehr officers about the possible use of “Taurus” cruise missiles in Ukraine. The Russian side interpreted the content as Germany’s preparation for war – which was clearly rejected by military experts.

Cause confusion systematically

The second overarching narrative being spread in Russia is a kind of normalization narrative, Libman said. “That is the statement that everything in Russia is going on the same as before. That the war, which is officially not a war at all, only affects a very few people and the majority continue to live as before.” The Kremlin consciously accepts that this is actually a contradiction to the threat situation portrayed. “This planned contradiction allows us to reach different population groups,” says Libman.

The third overarching narrative causes even more confusion – a fundamental spread of doubts about everything. “The message is that you shouldn’t really believe in anything,” says Libman. “That what comes from the West or from the Russian opposition is just as questionable, just as biased.” This is a very efficient narrative because it exploits the logical loopholes or inconsistencies in rhetoric that always exist. “And in the end it makes Russian citizens believe in nothing. And the regime can exploit this very cleverly.”

The deliberate lighting of smokescreens in order to confuse the audience as much as possible is also known from Russian disinformation abroad. For example, the Kremlin has spread many different, sometimes contradictory, versions of the downing of flight MH17. All with the aim of questioning the results of the two international investigations into the incident, which early on pointed to Russian involvement.

No real ones Opposing candidates

Not only is the information space severely restricted in Russia, the presidential election is also strictly controlled by the Kremlin, says Epifanova. “In the political space, Putin has for years built a system designed to eliminate real political debate. That is, the system tries to ward off the minimal risk. Putin is very fixated on the fact that he has absolute control.”

This can be seen, for example, when looking at the candidates: In addition to Putin, three other politicians are eligible – Vladislav Davankov (Deputy Head of the Russian Duma), Leonid Slutski (Chairman of the ultranationalist Liberal Democratic Party) and Nikolai Kharitonov (Communist Party candidate). None of them are seen as serious competitors; some of them even actively support Putin.

“None of the three see themselves as real candidates,” says Epifanova. “It’s about constructing an alternative and giving the illusion that Russian citizens have a real choice.” Real opposing candidates such as war opponent Boris Nadezhdin, however, were denied registration for the presidential election. Nadezhdin had described the war against Ukraine as a “fatal mistake”. The former television journalist and war opponent Yekaterina Duntsova is also not allowed to compete.

Election manipulation is expected

According to Russian media reports, Putin is aiming for a result of around 80 percent in the election – this would mean he would once again surpass his best result of 76.69 percent in the last vote in 2018. Experts consider it very likely that he will achieve this. “The preparations have already been made so to speak that the desired result will come out,” says Libman, alluding to possible election manipulation.

There were already numerous reports of election manipulation in Russia during the last elections. Videos showed, among other things, how members of the electoral commission allegedly threw stacks of ballot papers into the ballot box. From Epifanova’s point of view, online voting, which is used in Crimea, which was annexed in violation of international law, and in many regions of Russia, plays an important role. This tool was prepared by the Kremlin for massive election fraud. Experts also expect manipulation in the areas of Ukraine that Russia has annexed in violation of international law since the beginning of the invasion, as was the case with the sham referendums.

In the past, the independent election observation organization Golos was important in documenting such attempted fraud. However, this has been under enormous pressure from the state for years, and one of the chairmen is in prison. In 2021, Golos was placed on the list of so-called foreign agents by the Russian Ministry of Justice. Election observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are also not welcome – AfD members of the Bavarian state parliament were apparently invited instead.

“Elections are not competitive”

One Report by the Russian exile medium Meduza According to the report, voters dependent on the government, such as civil servants, were also pressured to bring a certain number of voters to the polling stations. According to this, public servants and business people had to provide the names, telephone numbers and email addresses of the people they wanted to vote several weeks before the actual election. In this way, among other things, voter turnout is intended to be manipulated – this has also happened in the past.

For all of these reasons, Libman can only speak of a sham election: “We know that no candidates who are truly in opposition to the Kremlin were allowed to run in elections in Russia. We know that the Kremlin exercises massive control over mass media . And that’s why you can say right from the start that these elections are not competitive.”

Putin’s opponents in Russia are also aware of this, says Epifanova. The team of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, who died in the prison camp, as well as many other opposition members and independent journalists simply called for everyone who is against Putin to go to the polling station at twelve o’clock on the last of the three election days to show their protest. Because they no longer had any hope that their voices could really make a difference.