The victory of Costa Rica against Japan has dramatically improved the starting position for the German team at the World Cup: how they can still reach the round of 16 if they win, draw or even lose.
With Costa Rica’s 1-0 win over Japan, the starting position for the German national team has greatly improved – elimination against Spain is now impossible. From a German point of view, FIFA thankfully evaluates the goal difference from all games as the first tie-break criterion in group games – unlike the European association Uefa in the Champions League, for example, where the direct comparison always counts first. What the three possible outcomes could mean for the final game. Click here for the German table of group E.
1st win against Spain
That would of course be the best possible scenario from a German perspective. With three points, everything would be in your own hands and a win against Costa Rica would certainly put you in the round of 16. Even a draw would be enough if Spain and Japan don’t also part draws.
2. Draw against Spain
Even a point against Spain would give the German team a starting position that seemed almost unimaginably good after the defeat against Japan. With a point in the table, it depends on how the parallel game ends. If Spain wins against Japan, then a German win against Costa Rica will definitely be enough for the round of 16. In a draw, it would take a German win by two goals to overtake Japan on goal difference.
Only a Japanese win against Spain would make things very complicated – because then Hansi Flick’s team would not only have to win against Costa Rica, but also overtake Spain in goal difference – which would be much more difficult after their 7-0 win against Costa Rica.
3. Loss to Spain
Even in the event of another bankruptcy, the German team would still be in the tournament, but then a win against Costa Rica would be imperative and even then they would be completely dependent on the Spaniards, who would then already have qualified. They would have to win against Japan, Germany would be out if there was a draw.
Should that happen, Germany could even reach the last 16 as group runners-up with just three points. Because then it only depends on the better goal difference compared to Japan. The clear advice therefore: If you lose against Spain – then by no means high!