The chicken-and-egg problem comes in many forms. One of them includes the two topics of vaccination skepticism and conspiracy myths. Here, too, the question is what came first. So, are people losing confidence in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines because they got caught up in the conspiracy myths and got weird ideas? Or does thinking only open up to conspiracy stories because people somehow want to hedge their previously existing vaccination skepticism with stories about dark powers, i.e. want to rationalize it?
The psychologists Jan-Willem van Prooijen and Nienke Böhm try just in the journal Social Psychological and Personality Science an answer to give in to this form of chicken-and-egg problem. Both are possible, according to the researchers from the Free University of Amsterdam and the Norwegian University of Bergen. But apparently something more speaks for variant two: the evidence suggests that vaccination skepticism often only prepares the ground for belief in conspiracies.
The fact that there is a connection between the blanket rejection of vaccinations and a penchant for conspiracy tales has been clearly shown in recent years, when Covid-19 rampaged through the world and disputes about vaccinations were fought out with nasty vehemence. Countless variations of corona conspiracy myths circulated. So far, the widely accepted assumption has been that these myths are affecting the willingness of many people to vaccinate. There is also scientific evidence for this chain of causality – first the belief in conspiracies, then the skepticism about vaccination. Experiments have shown that contact with corresponding misinformation can impair the willingness to be vaccinated. But apparently it’s not the only possible way.
Do the emotions come first, then the thoughts?
For their study, the psychologists van Prooijen and Böhm analyzed two data sets from the USA and the Netherlands, both of which were collected in early 2021. In total, just over 5,000 test persons took part and over the course of several weeks repeatedly provided information about their attitude towards the corona vaccination and the conspiracy myths that were currently circulating. Both sets of data found evidence that negative opinions about the Covid vaccination were associated with a greater tendency to believe related conspiracy theories. There were also indications of the opposite path, but only in the data set from the Netherlands, not in that from the USA. The one does not exclude the other, the psychologists argue. For a variant, the hints are just a little stronger.
The finding fits a model of the emergence of opinions and attitudes that the conscious thinking of humans sees more as a kind of subsequent rationalization process. Accordingly, the confrontation with topics provokes a kind of affective upsurge in people that is largely automatic and subconscious. To put it simply, an individual, for example, responds to a matter with discomfort – and only then formulates the appropriate view: first the attitude, then the formulated opinion. It could also be the case with the topic of Covid vaccination. The immunization awakens vague fears, which are now linked to content in a second step and thus virtually secured. Anything that appears to confirm these fears is now viewed more favorably. And this is where conspiracy myths come into play: they provide the right stories for the fears that already existed.