When the CSU parliamentary group meets for the two-day winter retreat this Monday, there will again be no memorable images that the onion-domed Seeon monastery in the Chiemgau landscape would have produced. Last year, there was at least one face-to-face meeting in the state parliament. But because the omicron wave is rising steeply, the parliamentary group decided at short notice to only hold its exam digitally this time. Instead of the Alpine scenery, the MPs will see the wall units in the offices of their colleagues. The keynote speech by Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) has also been canceled due to the pandemic. This speech would have promised a lot of tension.
Unlike the agenda for previous exams, Söder should have had a discussion with the CSU MPs just before he spoke to the cameras. Many members of the group had pushed for this debate. This can be taken as an indication that in the past some members of parliament did not always feel fully represented by the topics that Söder focused on in his keynote speeches. This time, the CSU MPs wanted to dictate their desired topics to the Prime Minister – combined with the expectation that Söder would address these topics in his keynote speech.
This is far from being a rebellion, nor is it an affront. But a subtle sign that the patience of the CSU MPs with Söder is finally over. In the faction, which followed its party leader, sometimes reluctantly but always submissively, those who had repeatedly complained that Söder was geared too much towards the green city audience and too little towards the conservative core voters of the CSU felt encouraged.
After the devastating result in the federal election (31.7 percent), Söder is reorienting himself in some points and much closer to the ideas of a large part of his parliamentary group. Most recently, he conspicuously emphasized that the CSU wanted to “take care of our regular voters again”. Some in the CSU parliamentary group see such sentences as an admission by their party leader that it would have been better if he had listened to his MPs earlier.
The weak performance in the federal election reverberates
Above all, the anger about the content-poor federal election campaign reverberates in the parliamentary group – and fuels the fear that the state election in 2023 could end just as badly. The truth is, however, that the members of the CSU state parliament have hardly set any substantive impulses of their own in recent years. In addition, a discussion with Söder, as planned for the exam, would have been possible at any time beforehand, the CSU parliamentarians meet weekly for the parliamentary group meeting with the Prime Minister.
But while some members of parliament blasphemed quite enthusiastically about Söder behind closed doors, the criticism behind the closed doors of the meetings was always more restrained, as was regularly heard. It should therefore have been interesting to see whether the parliamentary group would adopt a more researched tone in direct discussions with Söder. But not only his keynote speech has now been postponed until further notice, but also the discussion about the right path for the CSU in the direction of the 2023 state election. It is possible that the debate and speech will be made up for at one of the next group meetings.
Is Markus Blume also up for debate? Söder appreciates his general secretary. But some in the CSU are wondering whether Blume is the right man to win back their conservative, more rural core constituency for the party.
(Photo: Claus Schunk)
The program items of the retreat, in turn, are now largely limited to digital lectures and discussions by and with experts. The fact that economics expert Veronika Grimm has been invited and that BND boss Bruno Kahl is speaking about national security also underlines very clearly where the parliamentary group would like more emphasis in the future. Instead of Söder’s keynote speech, there is only a short statement by the CSU boss “on the current political situation” in the changed exam program for next Tuesday. Which definitely doesn’t sound like Söder intends to announce anything groundbreaking, such as a cabinet reshuffle that has been around for a long time.
By replacing individual ministers with new, fresh faces, Söder could demonstrate a portion of change, which the party would need with a view to the 2023 election. However, to ensure that this effect does not fizzle out, he would be well advised not to announce the personal details in a phase in which everyone is looking at the approaching wave of the pandemic. The fact that the CSU boss spoke in the plural in his New Year’s speech when he emphasized that he wanted to “refine” the “teams” in the near future has fueled speculation within the party that, in addition to one or the other cabinet member, Secretary General Markus Blume could also be up for debate . Not because Söder is dissatisfied with him, on the contrary. The cooperation works, there is a great relationship of trust, that was heard again and again.
Does the post of general require a different type?
The Munich flower is considered the intellectual face of a more metropolitan line, from which the CSU is currently moving away, at least rhetorically. As a result, some are wondering whether the general’s post needs a different type that might be a better fit now that the party wants to reassert its conservative positions. Especially in the countryside, some CSU members have never really warmed to flowers. Some think a ministry would suit him better. And practically everyone in the CSU considers Blume to be ministrabel, certainly Söder too. At the moment, however, this is speculation, there is no hard evidence, and no logical successor. It’s similar with faction leader Thomas Kreuzer, about whose replacement there is always speculation.
The new “Bayerntrend”, the survey by Bavarian Radio, which is expected in the week of the exam, could accelerate Söder’s personnel planning. In October, a Sat1 survey by the CSU, which was still colored by the federal election, predicted a meager 32 percent if there had already been a state election. Some in the CSU parliamentary group have long been busy with arithmetic games, which majorities could be formed against their party after the election, should things get really tough in the end. The most recent Sat1 poll showed the CSU back at 35 percent in the first week of January. For the proud party, however, that would still be a small catastrophe.