analysis
Four charges, a canceled press show that was supposed to exonerate him – and yet the Republicans are unwaveringly behind Trump. There are several reasons why the party and voters forgive him so much.
Well, what was that?, some may have thought when they heard the news: Donald Trump is making a grand gesture to hold a press conference for next Monday at his golf club in New Jersey. Before the eyes of the world, the fourfold defendant finally wanted to submit what he had owed for almost three years: the compelling evidence that the 2020 US presidential election in Georgia had been cheated to his disadvantage – and he was thus cheated last week wrongly charged in the state. And then this: a succinct rejection. His lawyers advised him against it, Trump said – the evidence would be presented during the trial.
Trump’s party friends in Georgia are likely to have acknowledged the retreat with a shake of the head. The Republican governor in Atlanta, Brian Kemp, had in a post on the short message platform X, formerly Twitter, last week. once again emphatically clarified: “There was no cheating in the 2020 election in Georgia! For almost three years no one was found who would have been able to present evidence of election fraud under oath and in court.”
So Georgia’s Republicans on a confrontational course over their most promising presidential candidate? Not quite. Governor Kemp defends the honor of his state, but in the second part of his post he returns completely to the party line: “In 2024 the future of our country is at stake and that must be our focus.” This feeling, widespread among Republicans, is accompanied more than ever by anxious questions: who is right to lead the party into a better future? Actually Trump? Or is the mood turning against the previous leader?
Process Wave only makes him stronger
Because that’s what the US Democrats have been counting on since they launched the second impeachment procedure against Trump in mid-January 2021: that the force of the pictures of the Capitol storming and the force of the burden of proof would be so enormous that the Americans would automatically distance themselves from Trump would avert. Even if it was clear to the Democrats at the time that there would be no conviction because of the political majority. In fact, the impeachment process dominated the US media for weeks – and made it clear how calculated and systematic the accused had tried to overturn the lost election.
Has that hurt Trump, made him impossible, ruined his reputation? Quite the opposite. In polls today, he is far ahead of his competitors in his own party, and a repeat of his duel with Joe Biden would, as things stand today, result in a neck-and-neck race. His comeback is therefore more likely than ever.
Accordingly, Democrats have little reason to believe that the federal and Georgia trials against Trump will provide the desired deterrent effect. There are a number of reasons why Trump continues to enjoy a high reputation in conservative America, far beyond his fanatic fan base. For the time being, they weigh so heavily that the process wave only makes him stronger.
According to a conservative reading, Trump delivers
The main reason: Joe Biden. The deep-seated belief that his policies are massively damaging to the country extends well beyond Trump’s core following. In the eyes of many US citizens, uncontrolled immigration, high crime in the cities, rising living costs and inflation, the feeling of government paternalism, dizzying spending on the Ukraine war, for example… The uneasiness extends to the ranks of the country’s own electorate.
According to a recent Reuters poll, a fifth of those who voted for Biden in 2020 say they are not sure they would do so again.
For conservative voters, the leitmotif is anyway: Biden has to go! When it comes to the sober and pragmatic question of who is most likely to beat Biden, many are counting on the one who has already made it into the White House: Trump.
His government policies have also been well received: Trump has filled a record number of conservative judgeships, not least three on the Supreme Court. He has reduced US dependence on imported energy, cut taxes, created jobs, kept out of a new war and promoted Israel’s reconciliation with a number of neighboring countries. On a conservative reading, Trump can deliver. You can tell a lot by looking at someone like that.
Trump supporters firmly believe he would be a success as re-elected President.
Legal double standards of the Democrats?
As for the double standard, nothing electrifies Republicans more than the never-ending saga of Biden son Hunter’s misdeeds. Opponents of the incumbent US President have long known that he was guilty of corruption by actively supporting his son’s dubious business practices. And they are outraged that confidential government documents were secured in Biden’s garage without the Democrat being dragged in front of the Qadi. Accordingly, they see the wave of lawsuits against Trump as hypocritical – and buy the argument that the US judiciary is being misused for political purposes in order to get rid of a feared opponent.
It is this mixture that forms an effective protective shield for Trump. After all, there are two events coming up next week that could poke holes in this screen a little: On Wednesday, the party’s internal challengers will show up in front of the camera on Fox News: What if someone has a great moment? On Friday, the deadline for the defendants to appear in court in Georgia: what if Trump looks like a common criminal when he has to be fingerprinted and photographed for mugshots?
In Georgia, unlike Trump’s previous court dates, cameras are allowed in the courtroom. So the ex-president will be seen in the dock. Whether the force of these images will be more effective than those from the impeachment process: Based on previous experience, one may doubt it.