In Wolfsburg, at Volkswagen, they of course already had an inkling of what was to come for the industry. That there will be no relief for the traditional: The combustion engine is in sight in Europe, at least in the case of cars. And so Volkswagen brought forward its transformation plan this week. As early as 2033, the largest car brand in Europe will no longer sell diesel and petrol variants in the EU. At the main plant in Wolfsburg alone, the group will invest half a billion euros in the coming year to get the “e-acceleration” right, explains the new VW brand boss Thomas Schäfer.
The acceleration is necessary. Because on the day after the strategy was identified, late on Thursday evening, sealed negotiator of the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers, the legislative chamber of the EU governments, the end of combustion engines in 2035. Then only cars and light commercial vehicles with electric drives may be newly registered in the European Union – for the sake of climate protection. Cars that have already been registered will continue to be allowed to run on petrol and diesel.
As early as June, the European Parliament and the Council of Ministers agreed their respective negotiating positions on this explosive draft regulation by the EU Commission. Both positions envisaged the end in 2035, so the agreement on Thursday evening is not a surprise.
The only thing that was controversial was what should apply to combustion cars that run exclusively on climate-neutral synthetic fuels, so-called e-fuels. In Germany, the FDP argues that the principle of openness to technology means that combustion engines should also be allowed after 2035 if their fuel does not harm the climate. Under pressure from the Liberals, the negotiating position of the Council of Ministers inserted a passage instructing the Commission to draw up a corresponding legislative proposal. This can now also be found in the final text, which the Council of Ministers and the EU Parliament have agreed on.
“The Liberals have sealed the ban on combustion engines”
However, this clause is only in the recitals, a kind of foreword to the actual law. This foreword is not binding on the Commission. It also states, restrictively, that a possible e-fuels exception can only concern cars “outside the scope of the standards applicable to vehicle fleets”. According to the general interpretation, this means that the Commission cannot propose an exception for normal cars, but at most for fire engines or models from niche suppliers with an annual production of less than 1000 cars.
Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing is nevertheless very pleased that the passage made it into the final text. This is “enormously important,” says the FDP politician. The lobby of the e-fuel manufacturers, the so-called “eFuel Alliance”, expressed disappointment. The association reports that the clause in the non-binding recitals falls short. The regulation on which Parliament and the Council of Ministers have agreed is “unilateral” and lacks openness to technology.
Federal Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP) is committed to continuing to allow cars with internal combustion engines if the fuel does not harm the climate.
(Photo: Emmanuele Contini/Imago)
The CDU MEP Jens Gieseke was the chief negotiator for the Christian Democrats. He also doesn’t believe that the passage will prevent the end of combustion engines: “The liberals have sealed the ban on combustion engines, as have the SPD and the Greens.”
In concrete terms, the ordinance sets maximum values for carbon dioxide emissions for cars and light commercial vehicles. New cars from a manufacturer are currently not allowed to emit more than 95 grams of the greenhouse gas per kilometer into the atmosphere, otherwise there will be penalties. According to the current legal situation, the limit is to be reduced by 2030. However, the new law enforces tougher savings: 55 percent less by 2030 and 100 percent less in 2035. In 13 years, cars will no longer be allowed to emit CO₂ – de facto the end of the combustion engine.
275,000 jobs are threatened
Environmental groups welcome the agreement. The Transport & Environment (T&E) organization describes the ban as “long overdue”. After all, cars are responsible for one-sixth of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe. And if we succeed in “developing and producing tomorrow’s technology here with us, that will bring many green jobs to Germany,” says T&E Germany Director Stef Cornelis.
But the disillusionment is great, especially among suppliers who specialize in parts for combustion engines. Because these components – pistons, filters, cast parts, spark plugs – will in future only be in demand outside of Europe; In addition, electric drives are only a tenth as expensive as diesel engines. Various studies are circulating on the number of threatened jobs. The European Association of Automotive Suppliers Clepa calculates with a loss of 275,000 jobs by 2040. A study by the Boston Consulting Group and Agora Verkehrswende, on the other hand, comes to the conclusion that job losses and job gains will almost offset each other.
One challenge will be to sufficiently expand the network of charging stations. In addition, green electricity production must grow strongly. There is also a threat of new dependencies on raw material suppliers for the batteries. Hildegard Müller, President of the VDA Auto Industry Association, would therefore have preferred more flexibility instead of a rigid ban date in order to be able to adjust in the event of setbacks. The EU is now setting “ambitious goals without leaving any options open to react to current developments”, criticizes her. This is “negligent”.
Everything on E. That has been the standard for the Volkswagen Group since the Herbert Diess era. But the top managers, like the rest of the industry, always point out the consequences for customers: The prices for new cars will rise because electronic components, especially batteries, will remain expensive in the foreseeable future. The Spanish subsidiary brand Seat, which is currently also building the Polo, is said to be focusing more on small electric cars, but the target price has already been collected. Instead of 20,000 euros, says VW top manager Thomas Schäfer, the car will now cost more like 25,000 euros.