For months there has been speculation in Brussels about which top personnel the conservative European People’s Party (EPP), to which the German Union parties also belong, will go into the European elections at the beginning of June 2024. In the last few days the picture has become much clearer: CDU politician and incumbent EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will most likely run for a second five-year term and run as the EPP’s top candidate. However, as some observers had expected, she will not be running for a seat in the European Parliament in her home state of Lower Saxony. The CDU state list there will instead be headed by the former Prime Minister of Lower Saxony and current EU Parliamentarian David McAllister.
From von der Leyen’s point of view, this is a sensible division. On the one hand, it saves itself a time-consuming election campaign in Lower Saxony. On the other hand, she would have to give up the seat she won in the European Parliament anyway if she wanted to remain President of the Commission. The EPP’s top candidate is more important to them: the EU Parliament has a say in who gets this office. Von der Leyen needs the support of other factions, especially the Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens. And most MPs only want to confirm an applicant who has previously voted for the voters in the European elections.
She is now emphasizing economic policy in front of the European Parliament
The fact that the EPP, which is led by CSU politician Manfred Weber, will nominate von der Leyen as its top candidate is now being questioned in Brussels at best by insignificant backbenchers. Any personal and political differences that may have existed between the two appear to have been resolved – or at least pushed aside enough to allow a united election campaign. Weber seems to have suppressed his disappointment that his CDU colleague became Commission President in 2019, even though he was the EPP’s top candidate and had won the European elections with the party at the time.
The so-called State of the EU speech, which von der Leyen gave to the European Parliament on Wednesday, was crucial for political unity. In it she had defended her very ambitious climate protection policy of the last few years. This was clearly too left-wing and green for many EPP people and had caused so much discontent among the conservatives that von der Leyen’s top candidacy seemed to be shaky at times.
In her speech, however, von der Leyen corrected her course: In the future, she promised, the aim would be to strengthen the competitiveness of European industry, not to burden citizens and companies with climate protection costs and not to burden farmers – a core EPP clientele too much of a burden. “For the first time in her term in office, von der Leyen is now holding the flag of the European People’s Party high,” says an EPP representative. “She now says: economy first!”
The announcement will probably come “not a minute earlier than absolutely necessary”
This change of course was closely coordinated with Weber with a view to his candidacy. In the coming weeks, von der Leyen will appear at two other important EPP events – an agricultural congress in Brussels and a meeting of party leaders in Split, Croatia. Internally, this is considered a kind of unofficial nomination party conference.
It may be some time before von der Leyen publicly declares her candidacy. Because as soon as she does, she is no longer just President of the Commission in Brussels, but also an EPP party politician – sometimes a difficult balancing act that reduces political effectiveness. People close to von der Leyen therefore say that she will announce her candidacy “not a minute earlier than absolutely necessary,” perhaps not until spring 2024.