Erdogan’s turn again
Sweden’s NATO application clears an important hurdle
In view of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, Sweden and Finland applied for NATO membership in May 2022. Finland was welcomed into the alliance as the 31st member at the beginning of April last year. photo
© Daniel Naupold/dpa
Is there actually an end to Sweden’s ordeal in joining NATO? The approval of the Turkish parliament is welcomed in Stockholm as an important step, but there is no great celebration.
After the Turkish parliament approved Sweden’s accession to NATO, all eyes are once again on President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. After the decision of the parliament in Ankara, it is now up to him to complete the Turkish ratification of the so-called accession protocol with his signature. Surprisingly positive signals came from the second big unknown on Sweden’s rocky road to NATO – Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – on Wednesday.
Sweden has been struggling for 20 months to get the necessary ratifications from all NATO states in order to be accepted into the alliance like its Nordic neighbor Finland. 29 of the 31 Allies have long since given their consent, except Turkey and Hungary. Ankara’s main reason for this was that, from Turkey’s perspective, Sweden was taking inadequate action against “terrorist organizations”. Budapest took exception to Swedish statements about the rule of law and corruption in the country.
Important step – nothing more and nothing less
Now at least one important hurdle has been cleared: the Turkish parliament voted with a large majority for Sweden’s membership in NATO on Tuesday evening. But despite the year and a half of quarrels, the celebration in Stockholm was muted. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Sweden had come “one step closer” to NATO membership. Foreign Minister Tobias Billström warned that there was no longer any reason for Erdogan to wait.
It is unclear why the vote was placed on Parliament’s agenda now. Possible concessions in negotiations over arms deals could have played a role behind the scenes – but nothing has been publicly announced in this regard so far. Erdogan had tied his country’s approval, among other things, to fighter jet deliveries from the USA, for which the necessary approval from the US Congress has not yet been received. Local elections across Turkey are scheduled for March 2024. Completing the deal before that could play into Erdogan and his party’s hands.
The great unknown 1: When will Erdogan sign?
The dispute over Turkish approval has clearly shown Erdogan’s political character. He zigzags through negotiations while maintaining good relations with the Kremlin despite Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. When it came to Sweden, he repeatedly withdrew promises or added new demands to agreements, such as the delivery of F-16 fighter jets.
This is also why Turkey’s approval of NATO should only be considered as sealed once the accession protocol has been signed and handed over. Erdogan has not yet commented on what his timetable is.
It is hoped at NATO headquarters in Brussels that Sweden’s accession can be sealed at a meeting of defense ministers on February 15th. As was recently the case with Finland, there would probably be a celebratory ceremony at which the Swedish flag would be hoisted in front of NATO headquarters. However, no one wants to plan this publicly for the time being – too often in the past few months there has been a vain hope that the admission process will be completed.
The Great Unknown 2: What is Hungary doing?
The big welcome party for the Swedes could also be canceled by another man who has repeatedly proven his willfulness in the past: Hungary’s Prime Minister Orban.
Orban and his supporters have found a whole range of reasons for their anti-Sweden stance. They still accuse Kristersson of having voted to block EU funds for Hungary at an EU summit in 2022 and of having requested the exclusion of her party Fidesz from the European party family EPP in 2019.
At the same time, Hungary had always asserted that it did not want to be the last country to ratify. Orban would find himself in exactly this situation if Erdogan signed promptly.
After a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Orban reiterated in surprisingly clear words on Wednesday that his government supports Sweden’s NATO membership. Orban said on the online platform .
Orban’s information did not make it clear when exactly a vote could take place in Budapest. Normally, the next session of the Hungarian Parliament would begin on February 27th. It remained unclear whether there could be an unscheduled special session beforehand to ratify Sweden’s accession.