As of: 09/28/2021 7:50 p.m.
Turkish President Erdogan feels disliked by US President Biden. Before a meeting with Russia’s head of state Putin, he talks about rapprochement with Moscow – but he and Putin are very different.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Sochi on the Black Sea, and there is a lot to talk about and clarify. On the agenda are topics such as Syria, where Russia is exerting increasing pressure on Turkey, or the relationship with Ukraine, which Turkey is supplying with combat drones – to the annoyance of Russia. At most, the fact that Recep Tayyip Erdogan is currently presenting his disappointment with US President Joe Biden in the media could loosen the mood between the two rulers.
What is planned as a one-day working visit should actually be anything but a relaxing day in the Russian seaside resort of Sochi. And one in a tense atmosphere. Vladimir Putin and Erdogan are no longer as close as they were in the past.
Erdogan can reach Sochi more quickly than Moscow – but many meetings with Putin have done little to change the conflicting interests.
Image: picture alliance / Yuri Kochetkov / POOL European Pressphoto Agency / AP / dpa
Controversy one: Syria
The reasons for this can be found around Turkey: in Syria, the Caucasus and Ukraine. Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin warned journalists in Istanbul at the end of last week that the international community must do more to end the war in Syria, avoid a new wave of migrants and enable refugees to return.
As soon as it was said, Russia bombed positions of pro-Turkish militias that are still trying to prevent the Syrian regime and its allies from retaking Idlib, the last rebel fortress. After this demonstration of power by Moscow, the latter should only be a matter of time. Thereafter, Turkey runs the risk of being completely ousted from Syria.
Issue two: the Caucasus
Russia’s tough course against Turkey in Syria is also likely to be related to the Turkish behavior in the Caucasus. The Armenians supported by Russia had no chance in the Nagorno-Karabakh war against Azerbaijan, which was armed by Ankara. A humiliation for Putin too.
Drunk from this success, Erdogan Putin immediately turned himself into an opponent again by not only supporting Ukraine in the dispute with Russia with words but also with a combat drone deal. Putin is said to have foamed with anger.
No meeting with Biden
Of all people, US President Biden could now have ensured that Erdogan left his confrontational course and went back to Putin. At least the Turkish government is trying to create that impression by complaining loudly these days that Erdogan did not receive him for a one-on-one conversation at the UN General Assembly last week.
Even if Biden did not meet with any other head of state alone, special treatment for Turkey would have been appropriate, said Erdogan on US television; solely because of Turkey’s role in Afghanistan. A role that Washington obviously isn’t that important after all.
Yes, there have been encounters between Erdogan and Biden this year. But the Turkish president would have wished for a two-person meeting in New York and is now cold.
Image: AFP
More defense systems from Russia?
If the impression arises that Turkey is once again being driven into the arms of Russia, the math of the communications strategists in Ankara has paid off. This not only brings back memories of Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S400 missile defense system two years ago, but it also raises the question of how things stand with the delivery of a second tranche.
Erdogan’s answer is clear: if Turkey wanted this, no one could prevent it. With the appropriate assignment, Erdogan would at least have something in hand on his trip to Sochi. But the reaction from Washington came promptly and clearly: in the form of new sanctions threats.
In the case of the first delivery, a corresponding threat was put into practice by the US excluding Turkey from the program of the new F-35 fighter jet, even though Ankara had already invested 1.4 billion dollars. Now Sochi could also be about buying fighter jets “Made in Russia”.
Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system caused massive anger in NATO.
Image: picture alliance / dpa / Turkish Defense Ministry / AP
A problem for NATO
If Putin gives Erdogan an offer to which he cannot say no, the next crisis between Turkey and other NATO allies would be programmed. But that is exactly what Biden could prevent. At the G20 summit in Rome at the end of October, an Erdogan-Biden meeting is to take place.
But even then, the falling temperatures in Turkey should increase Putin’s ability to put pressure on his guest. A political scientist appeared on Turkish television who had calculated that Turkey needed 18 billion cubic meters more natural gas this winter than in the previous Corona winter. Apart from their friendly Azerbaijan, the gas is bought primarily from Russia.
So Erdogan’s flight to Sochi should be like walking to Canossa.
Erdogan with Putin Heavy fare on the Black Sea
Christian Buttkereit, ARD Istanbul, September 28, 2021 5:53 p.m.